30 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cambuur vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Cambuur 1-4 Twente.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Cambuur, 29% draw, 38% Twente — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur0%Draw1%Twente99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽R. Nijstadassist: B. van Rooij
26'
⚽W. Weghorstassist: J. Drommel
Nicky Souren
39'
40'
Sondre Ørjasæter
🔁M. Costarelliout: F. Kvam
46'
🔁S. Bouhoudaneout: N. Binder
46'
47'
⚽M. Pjacaassist: S. Orjasaeter
60'
🔁D. Weidmannout: T. van den Belt
60'
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: F. Thorvaldsen
🔁J. Amofaout: D. Bouah
65'
🔁J. Berkhoutout: S. Vink
77'
77'
🔁M. Pjacaout: K. Kurowski
82'
⚽Y. Taha
🔁I. Henstraout: I. Hamache
85'
85'
🔁A. Adelgaardout: G. Peixoto
85'
🔁B. van Rooijout: M. Bruns
⚽I. Hamache
88'

Match stats — Cambuur vs Twente

36%Possession64%
10Shots23
3On target10
2Corners9
0.47xG1.76

Goals against chances

Cambuur1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Twente4 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambuur 5-4-1
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 29I. HenstraM
  • 3J. BerkhoutM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
Substitutes
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 24M. Kalisvaart
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 2D. BouahM
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 17E. ApkakouM
  • 48D. WesterhofM
  • 9S. VinkF
Coach: Johan Plat
Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 3R. PropperD
  • 43R. NijstadD
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 42D. WeidmannM
  • 27S. OrjasaeterM
  • 19Y. TahaM
  • 7M. PjacaM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 12G. PeixotoD
  • 38M. BrunsD
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 26B. NagelM
  • 20T. van den BeltM
  • 11D. RotsF
  • 17F. ThorvaldsenF
Coach: John van den Brom

Form going into Cambuur vs Twente

Cambuur

  • L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026

Twente

  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cambuur6114918-94
5Twente6411125+713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Twente

  • 30 August 2026Cambuur 1–4 TwenteEredivisie
  • 9 April 2023Twente 4–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 23 October 2022Cambuur 0–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 6 March 2022Twente 1–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 28 August 2021Cambuur 2–0 TwenteEredivisie

Leading scorers: Cambuur and Twente

Cambuur

  • R. El Arguioui4 goals
  • I. Hamache3 goals1 assists

Twente

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.