5 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Eredivisie prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Full time1 – 3

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Feyenoord.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% NEC Nijmegen, 29% draw, 33% Feyenoord — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEC Nijmegen at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen0%Draw1%Feyenoord99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+3'
Gjivai Zechiel
Noe Lebreton
45+3'
50'
Oussama Targhalline
52'
⚽Gjivai Zechielassist: Nacho Ferri
⚽Darko Nejašmić
55'
59'
🔁Gaoussou Kyassou Diarraout: Jerayno Schaken
59'
🔁Nacho Ferriout: Shaqueel Van Persie
61'
⚽Luciano Valenteassist: Gjivai Zechiel
64'
⚽Jerayno Schakenassist: Gjivai Zechiel
🔁Kaj Sierhuisout: Dennis Geiger
72'
🔁Clement Bischoffout: Ayodele Thomas
72'
🔁Almugera Kabarout: Gabriel·Bras
72'
80'
🔁Gjivai Zechielout: Tobias van den Elshout
80'
🔁Givairo Readout: Mats Deijl
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Adam Tahaui
80'
🔁Bram Nuytinckout: Perr Schuurs
80'
85'
🔁Oussama Targhallineout: Thijs Kraaijeveld

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord

62%Possession38%
12Shots11
2On target6
1Corners1

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-1-2
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 10D. TadićM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
  • 34Kevin KersF
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 19Adam TahauiF
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Feyenoord 4-3-3
  • 1T. ErnstG
  • 26G. ReadD
  • 4T. WatanabeD
  • 6J. St. JusteD
  • 35Mika MàrmolD
  • 28O. TarghallineM
  • 8G. ZechiëlM
  • 34C. VanhoutteM
  • 27G. DiarraF
  • 19Nacho FerriF
  • 10L. ValenteF
Substitutes
  • 39L. BossinG
  • 20M. DeijlD
  • 33F. KastenmeierG
  • 24T. KraaijeveldM
  • 16Javi LópezD
  • 14S. SteijnM
  • 22T. van den ElshoutM
  • 11Gonçalo BorgesF
  • 57Jerayno SchakenM
Coach: G. van Bronckhorst

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord

NEC Nijmegen

  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026

Feyenoord

  • D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
  • W5-2away to Cambuur23 August 2026
  • D2-2GO Ahead Eagles16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10NEC Nijmegen62131112-17
3Feyenoord6420207+1314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord

  • 5 September 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–3 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 12 April 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 23 November 2025Feyenoord 2–4 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 1 March 2025Feyenoord 0–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 28 September 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 12 May 2024NEC Nijmegen 2–3 FeyenoordEredivisie

Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord

NEC Nijmegen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Feyenoord

  • G. Zechiël5 goals3 assists
  • L. Valente3 goals1 assists
  • Nacho Ferri3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.