Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 3-2 Arda Kardzhali.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Spartak Varna, 27% draw, 45% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Arda Kardzhali at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Line-ups
- 23P. IlievG
- 20D. LozevD
- 5D. KrastevD
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 29Z. TindanoD
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 17T. MarinovM
- 19S. MajorM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 90C. OkohF
- 77A. IvanovF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 7BuaM
- 80A. GomesF
- 2B. IvanovD
- 10J. LopesF
- 3Mateo Jurić-PetrašiloD
- 14Daniel PavlovM
- 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 2Derick Fernando da SilvaD
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 80L. KotevM
- 21V. VelevD
- 10S. KovachevF
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 16P. BachevF
- 39A. VutovM
- 18S. VasilevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 70Nabil MakniF
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 8A. KabovF
- 4David Akintola IdowuD
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 26B. AkandzhaM
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
First League
- L1-6away to CSKA 194830 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia2 November 2026
- D1-1Levski Sofia27 October 2026
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Varna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Spartak Varna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
- 27 February 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 September 2025Spartak Varna 3–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 7 February 2025Arda Kardzhali 2–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 16 August 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 6 March 2023Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 20 August 2022Spartak Varna 1–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Varna beat Arda Kardzhali 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Arda Kardzhali at 45% and given a win for Spartak Varna 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Birsent Karagaren 16' for Arda Kardzhali, Derick Fernando da Silva 34' for Arda Kardzhali, Okoh chidera 36' for Spartak Varna, anton ivanov 52' for Spartak Varna, Okoh chidera 86' for Spartak Varna.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Spartak Varna a 32.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.6% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 11.2 points lower than before the match.
For Arda Kardzhali the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.2% going in: 7.0% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.7%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Spartak Varna v Arda Kardzhali has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is Arda Kardzhali's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Spartak Varna win28%▼ −4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Arda Kardzhali win45%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.