7 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction & result

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
Referee: Martin Velikov
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ludogorets 2-2 CSKA 1948.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Ludogorets, 26% draw, 26% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ludogorets0%Draw7%CSKA 194893%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Brian Sobrero
46'
🔁Brian Sobreroout: Frederic Maciel
⚽petar stanic
51'
56'
Emerson
59'
🔁Lasha Dvaliout: kostadin iliev
69'
🔁danilo terasenkoout: Atanas Iliev
🔁petar stanicout: Ivajlo Čočev
71'
🔁Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruzout: Kwadwo Duah
71'
73'
Emerson
79'
⚽Atanas Iliev
🔁Deroy Duarteout: Amir Hadžiahmetović
80'
81'
⚽Georgi Rusev
85'
🔁Elias Correa Francoout: Ognjen Gasevic
Edvin Kurtulus
89'
🔁Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmoout: Bernard Tekpetey
90+2'
🔁Caio Vidal Rochaout: Nathan Fernandes
90+2'
⚽Ivajlo Čočev
90+8'

Match stats — Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948

63%Possession37%
17Shots4
10On target4
9Corners4

Line-ups

Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 6I. ZhelizkoM
  • 11Caio VidalF
  • 12Rwan CruzF
  • 14P. StanićM
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 17SonM
  • 23Deroy DuarteM
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 44O. RekikD
  • 77Erick MarcusF
Substitutes
  • 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
  • 9K. DuahM
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 22M. PolendakovD
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 13I. GrbićG
  • 8A. HadžiahmetovićM
  • 26F. KaločM
Coach: I. Jovičević
CSKA 1948 4-1-3-2
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 5B. BenamarD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 71danilo terasenkoF
  • 6EmersonD
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 20B. SobreroM
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 11G. RusevF
Substitutes
  • 93M. DialloF
  • 67Frédéric MacielF
  • 22O. GaševićF
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 9A. IlievF
  • 70K. IlievD
  • 13D. SheytanovG
  • 14K. StrinskiM
  • 10B. TsonevM
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov

Form going into Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948

Ludogorets

First League

  • W3-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to CSKA Sofia26 October 2026
  • W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
  • W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

CSKA 1948

First League

  • W6-1Spartak Varna30 October 2026
  • W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
  • L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ludogorets won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ludogorets scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ludogorets had three goals or more.
  • CSKA 1948 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for CSKA 1948 had three goals or more.
  • CSKA 1948 won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ludogorets139312611+1530
4CSKA 1948149233316+1729

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948

  • 16 May 2026CSKA 1948 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 25 April 2026Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA 1948First League
  • 5 April 2026Ludogorets 3–0 CSKA 1948First League
  • 27 October 2025CSKA 1948 5–4 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 7 April 2025CSKA 1948 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 16 December 2024CSKA 1948 2–3 LudogoretsCup

Leading scorers: Ludogorets and CSKA 1948

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tekpetey20
  • Rwan Cruz12

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel30
  • Elias Franco20
  • A. Iliev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ludogorets and CSKA 1948 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ludogorets at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: petar stanic 51' for Ludogorets, Atanas Iliev 79' for CSKA 1948, Georgi Rusev 81' for CSKA 1948, Ivajlo Čočev 90+8' for Ludogorets. Sent off: Emerson (CSKA 1948) 73'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ludogorets a 18.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 22.1% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 9.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.0%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For CSKA 1948 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 90.9% going in: 95.1% after a win, 90.8% after a draw, 89.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 90.8%.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ludogorets v CSKA 1948 has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is CSKA 1948's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ludogorets win48%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. CSKA 1948 win26%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.