Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 0-3 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Levski Sofia, 29% draw, 25% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Levski Sofia at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Line-ups
- 92S. VutsovG
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 4C. MakounD
- 3MaiconF
- 21AldairD
- 18G. TrdinM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 7ReinaldoF
- 17Everton BalaF
- 9J. PereaF
- 1O. VladimirovG
- 8M. GrujićM
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 55P. HristovD
- 27David KussoF
- 12M. SangaréF
- 22M. SoulaM
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 37B. CotterD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
- 17Á. MartinoD
- 5J. GbaminM
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 28I. PittasF
- 8S. SensiM
- 7M. EbongM
- 9S. GodoyF
- 4Dinis AlmeidaD
- 19A. YordanovM
- 94I. Solet BomawokoM
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 3Tamimou OuorouM
- 67C. ItuM
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 2PastorD
Form going into Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
First League
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali27 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
CSKA Sofia
First League
- D0-0Slavia Sofia31 October 2026
- W2-0Ludogorets26 October 2026
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
What these results say
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Levski Sofia had two goals or fewer.
- Levski Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for CSKA Sofia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 32 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia and Levski Sofia have met 7 times in the records we hold, CSKA Sofia has won 3 of them to Levski Sofia's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
CSKA Sofia won the last one 3–0 on 8 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 |
| Levski Sofia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Nov 2026
First LeagueLevski Sofia 0–3 CSKA Sofia - 9 Sep 2026
Super CupLevski Sofia 2–4 CSKA Sofia - 16 May 2026
First LeagueLevski Sofia 2–0 CSKA Sofia - 25 Apr 2026
First LeagueCSKA Sofia 1–3 Levski Sofia - 13 Apr 2026
First LeagueCSKA Sofia 1–1 Levski Sofia - 8 Nov 2025
First LeagueLevski Sofia 0–1 CSKA Sofia - 2 Mar 2025
First LeagueCSKA Sofia 2–2 Levski Sofia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Levski Sofia concede 5% fewer than CSKA Sofia. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| Levski Sofia | 0.82 | 1.04 |
Leading scorers: Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Sofia won 3–0 at Levski Sofia. The model had leaned towards a win for Levski Sofia at 46% and given a win for CSKA Sofia 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Max Ebong 8' for CSKA Sofia, Ioannis Pittas 15' for CSKA Sofia, Jean-Philippe Gbamin 57' for CSKA Sofia.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Levski Sofia a 66.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 75.2% after a win, 63.8% after a draw, 52.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.7%, 13.8 points lower than before the match.
For CSKA Sofia the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 15.4% going in: 26.9% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 11.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Levski Sofia win46%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- CSKA Sofia win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.