7 November 2026, 11:30 UTC

Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result

Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca
Referee: Piskov·Gero
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Botev Vratsa 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Botev Vratsa, 34% draw, 27% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.56, 2.94 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Botev Vratsa at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Vratsa0%Draw3%Lokomotiv Plovdiv97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
⚽Christ Longvilleassist: D. Mrankov
46'
⚽D. Mrankovassist: Julien Lamy
⚽Martin Smolenskiassist: Filip gigov
48'
52'
Todor Pavlov
54'
Julien Lamy
55'
🔁Milan petrovicout: brito matheus
55'
🔁D. Mrankovout: junior burban
55'
🔁Julien Lamyout: Anton Fase
🔁Martin Detelinov Petkovout: Daniel Genov
73'
🔁Martin Smolenskiout: Vladislav Naydenov
73'
75'
🔁Christ Longvilleout: sevi idriz
84'
🔁Julian Ilievout: Miha·Trdan
🔁Jose Gallegosout: Kassim Hadji
89'
🔁Buchkovout: Antoan Stoyanov
89'
Ivan Goranov
90'
90+4'
Ryan lucas

Match stats — Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

57%Possession43%
15Shots4
2On target3
6Corners1

Line-ups

Botev Vratsa 4-2-3-1
  • 94M. OrlinovG
  • 25A. BuchkovD
  • 36M. StoevD
  • 4I. GoranovF
  • 3S. SanyangD
  • 7R. TsonevM
  • 12I. YurukovM
  • 24M. SmolenskiM
  • 79M. PetkovF
  • 10J. GallegosM
  • 90F. GigovF
Substitutes
  • 97V. NaydenovF
  • 8A. StoyanovM
  • 98L. VasilevG
  • 11M. AchkovD
  • 88L. BoyanovD
  • 21M. DimitrovD
  • 9D. GenovD
  • 81K. HadjiM
  • 6A. KichukovM
Coach: Todor Simov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 44M. PetrovićD
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 5T. PavlovM
  • 10J. IlievM
  • 22I. IvanovD
  • 99J. LamyF
  • 39P. UmarbayevM
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 31D. MrankovF
Substitutes
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 94brito matheusD
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 7Sevi IdrizM
  • 17A. FaseF
  • 19junior burbanF
  • 3D. AliF
  • 40P. ZovkoG
  • 9A. VelevF
Coach: D. Kosič

Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Vratsa

First League

  • L0-1away to Cherno More Varna2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia24 October 2026
  • L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

First League

  • L0-3Ludogorets31 October 2026
  • D0-0Slavia Sofia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
  • D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Botev Vratsa did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Botev Vratsa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Botev Vratsa had two goals or fewer.
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Botev Vratsa142481124-1310
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338818-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • 22 March 2026Botev Vratsa 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 17 October 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 15 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–3 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 1 March 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 18 October 2024Botev Vratsa 0–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 25 November 2023Botev Vratsa 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League

The result against the call

Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 2–1 at Botev Vratsa. The model had leaned towards a win for Botev Vratsa at 39% and given a win for Lokomotiv Plovdiv 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christ Longville 37' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, D. Mrankov 46' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Martin Smolenski 48' for Botev Vratsa.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botev Vratsa a 35.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.7% after a win, 38.0% after a draw, 49.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 14.1 points higher than before the match.

For Lokomotiv Plovdiv the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.2% going in: 34.4% after a win, 53.5% after a draw, 62.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.4%, 17.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Botev Vratsa v Lokomotiv Plovdiv has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 34% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 39% / 34% / 27%: the biggest move is Botev Vratsa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Botev Vratsa win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw34%=
  3. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.