Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Slavia Sofia, 32% draw, 27% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Slavia Sofia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Line-ups
- 99I. AndonovG
- 5David MalembanaD
- 87D. FerraressoD
- 20J. Semedo VarelaD
- 24L. MarinD
- 4N. SavićD
- 73I. MinchevM
- 95V. MiletićM
- 27Umaro BaldéF
- 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
- 9Y. BornosuzovF
- 6B. TodorovM
- 23I. AntonovF
- 26D. BurovD
- 11M. DossoM
- 3M. GeorgievD
- 19E. GogevF
- 63L. NtumbaG
- 1G. PetkovG
- 7R. RaychevF
- 81K. TomovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 24David TelesM
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 7M. BarandasF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 6M. BanevM
- 31D. HristovG
- 26João BandaróD
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 44Nestorly lumbuD
- 34K. MihaylovM
- 13E. NyagolovD
- 9J. PadillaF
- 17I. TasevF
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Slavia Sofia
First League
- D0-0away to CSKA Sofia31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
Cherno More Varna
First League
- W1-0Botev Vratsa2 November 2026
- W2-0Septemvri Sofia27 October 2026
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Sofia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Slavia Sofia failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Slavia Sofia had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Cherno More Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Cherno More Varna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
- 5 April 2026Cherno More Varna 1–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 25 October 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 29 March 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 14 December 2024Cherno More Varna 1–0 Slavia SofiaCup
- 4 October 2024Slavia Sofia 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 9 December 2023Cherno More Varna 3–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
The result against the call
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Slavia Sofia at 41% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: David Malembana (Slavia Sofia) 62'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Slavia Sofia a 6.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.2% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.0%.
For Cherno More Varna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.5% going in: 14.9% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 33.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.9%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Slavia Sofia v Cherno More Varna has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 32% / 27%: the biggest move is Slavia Sofia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Slavia Sofia win41%▼ −2
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Cherno More Varna win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.