GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% GIL Vicente, 28% draw, 24% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
GIL Vicente at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
Line-ups
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 12A. LausenM
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
- 77MuriloM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 17Sergio BermejoF
- 26WeversonD
- 7T. TouréF
- 3EspigaresD
- 11Joelson FernandesF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 19GuilhermeM
- 99M. KabaF
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 8M. DominguezM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 27S. BambaF
- 66I. AyumaM
- 21I. AlaniM
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Form going into GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
GIL Vicente
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
- W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 18 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
- 5 March 2023GIL Vicente 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 11 September 2022Maritimo 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 20 March 2022GIL Vicente 1–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2021Maritimo 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2021Maritimo 0–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
The result against the call
GIL Vicente and Maritimo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for GIL Vicente at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Murilo Souza 7' for GIL Vicente, Israel Isaac Ayuma 90+3' for Maritimo.
How the call on GIL Vicente v Maritimo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is GIL Vicente's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- GIL Vicente win48%▲ +9
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Maritimo win24%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often GIL Vicente's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Maritimo's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.