19 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Alverca vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alverca 1-0 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alverca, 28% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alverca at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alverca97%Draw3%Rio Ave0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dawda Camara Sankharéassist: Francisco Chiquinho
3'
59'
🔁Pedro Amaralout: Marios Vrushai
59'
🔁Roland Galcikout: Sebastian Clemensen
🔁Lucas Figueiredo dos Santosout: André Vidigal
68'
🔁Dawda Camara Sankharéout: Vivaldo Semedo
68'
69'
🔁Miguel Patricíoout: Malik Sellouki
69'
🔁João Tomé Baptistaout: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
69'
🔁Tamas Nikitscherout: Caike Lourenço Valença
🔁Francisco Chiquinhoout: Matheus Franca
74'
🔁Francisco Chissumbaout: Yaya Bojang
84'
🔁Rayan Lucasout: Zé Rafael
84'
87'
Simón García
Davy Gui
88'
André Vidigal
90+3'
90+5'
Francisco Petrasso

Match stats — Alverca vs Rio Ave

48%Possession52%
23Shots6
6On target3
8Corners3

Line-ups

Alverca 3-4-3
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 14S. BaseyaD
  • 21Sergi GómezD
  • 12I. JamesD
  • 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
  • 35RayanM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  • 10ChiquinhoF
  • 19D. CamaraF
  • 22FigueiredoF
Substitutes
  • 8Vasco MoreiraM
  • 91JhonatanG
  • 26Matheus FrançaF
  • 24E. JemideD
  • 18Z. KassaryM
  • 17S. MerhegF
  • 11C. NuozziF
  • 9Vivaldo SemedoF
  • 27Toni TamaritF
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 32Vitor HugoG
  • 20João ToméD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 3S. GarciaD
  • 24Pedro AmaralD
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 5A. NtoiM
  • 7Diogo BezerraM
  • 79M. PatricioM
  • 30R. GalčíkM
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 9Tamble MonteiroF
  • 80S. ClemmensenF
  • 54G. LiavasM
  • 60CaikeD
  • 27T. MedinaM
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 17M. VrousaiF
Coach: S. Silaidopoulos

Form going into Alverca vs Rio Ave

Alverca

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
  • L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
  • D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
  • D2-2Estrela15 August 2026

Rio Ave

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
  • L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
  • L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Alverca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Alverca.
  • Rio Ave failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rio Ave conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Alverca113351415-112
17Rio Ave11218924-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alverca vs Rio Ave

  • 4 April 2026Rio Ave 1–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 8 November 2025Alverca 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 23 November 2024Alverca 2–2 Rio AveTaça de Portugal
  • 24 November 2019Rio Ave 1–0 AlvercaTaça de Portugal

The full Alverca vs Rio Ave record →

Leading scorers: Alverca and Rio Ave

Alverca

GoalsAssists

  • Vivaldo Semedo30

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alverca beat Rio Ave 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alverca at 49%. The goal: Dawda Camara Sankharé 3' for Alverca.

How the call on Alverca v Rio Ave has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Alverca's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Alverca win49%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Rio Ave win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.