17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Sporting Gijon vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result

El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon
Referee: A. Morilla
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sporting Gijon 2-1 Albacete.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Sporting Gijon, 26% draw, 19% Albacete — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Gijon at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Gijon5%Draw93%Albacete2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alejo Sarcoassist: Álex Corredera
17'
42'
•Victor Valverde da Silva
45'
🔁Álex Rubio Roldánout: Higinio Marín
57'
🔁Víctor San Bartoloméout: Agustin Medina Delgado
Emanuel Gularte
63'
🔁Manuel Rodríguez Pazout: Hugo Guillamón
70'
🔁Enol Prendes Ortizout: Pablo García
70'
74'
🔁Dani Bernabéuout: Mario Soberon Gutierrez
🔁Alejo Sarcoout: Juan Otero
78'
78'
🔁Antonio Pacheco Ruizout: Javi Villar
🔁Gaspar Camposout: Bruno Rubio Argüelles
78'
Hugo Guillamón
80'
Pablo García
83'
86'
⚽Jesús Vallejoassist: Victor Valverde da Silva
Nicolás Ricardo Larcamón
88'
90+4'
Diego Mariño
⚽César Gelabertassist: Pablo García
90+5'
90+7'
Higinio Marín

Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Albacete

52%Possession48%
11Shots7
5On target2
3Corners5
0.81xG0.45

Goals against chances

Sporting Gijon2 from 0.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Albacete1 from 0.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Gijon 4-4-2
  • 1Rubén YáñezG
  • 2Guille RosasD
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 23Jorge SáenzD
  • 44Andrés CuencaD
  • 10César GelabertM
  • 8M. RodriguezM
  • 14Álex CorrederaM
  • 7Gaspar CamposM
  • 16A. SarcoF
  • 27Enol PrendesF
Substitutes
  • 35C. FerreresM
  • 3Pablo GarcíaD
  • 22Hugo GuillamónM
  • 21M. LoumM
  • 6Nacho MartínM
  • 26Iker MartínezD
  • 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
  • 19J. OteroF
  • 36B. RubioM
Coach: N. Larcamón
Albacete 3-5-2
  • 13Diego MariñoG
  • 24VallejoD
  • 22Lluís LópezD
  • 21Carlos NevaD
  • 17José CorpasM
  • 14San BartoloméM
  • 6Antonio PachecoM
  • 18Sergio OrtuM
  • 27D. BernabeuM
  • 19Alex RubioF
  • 11Víctor ValverdeF
Substitutes
  • 2Lorenzo AguadoD
  • 32A. AlbarracínF
  • 40Jota DomingoD
  • 10RóberF
  • 12Higinio MarínF
  • 1Carlos MarínG
  • 4Agus MedinaM
  • 44Antonio DavidM
  • 30Mario RamosG
Coach: Joseba Etxeberria

Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Albacete

Sporting Gijon

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
  • W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
  • L0-1Eldense13 September 2026

Albacete

Segunda División

  • L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sporting Gijon147251617-123
21Albacete133191324-1110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Albacete

  • 15 February 2026Albacete 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 28 September 2025Sporting Gijon 3–4 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 23 March 2025Sporting Gijon 0–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 27 October 2024Albacete 3–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 1 March 2024Sporting Gijon 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 22 October 2023Albacete 1–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División

The result against the call

Sporting Gijon beat Albacete 2–1. The model had made a win for Sporting Gijon its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alejo Sarco 17' for Sporting Gijon, Jesús Vallejo 86' for Albacete, César Gelabert 90+5' for Sporting Gijon. On expected goals it finished 0.81–0.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting Gijon a 16.0% chance to finish in the top four: 17.8% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Albacete the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.3% going in: 65.9% after a win, 72.0% after a draw, 76.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.6%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting Gijon v Albacete has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 55% / 26% / 19%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Sporting Gijon win55%▲ +11
  2. Draw26%▼ −4
  3. Albacete win19%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.