17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Las Palmas vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas
Referee: G. Cid
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Las Palmas 0-3 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Las Palmas, 28% draw, 40% Castellón — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Castellón at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Las Palmas0%Draw1%Castellón99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alex Suárez
17'
18'
⚽Israel Suero Fernández
Iñaki González Zambrano
19'
22'
⚽Agustín Sienraassist: Pablo Santiago
🔁Iñaki González Zambranoout: Enzo Loiodice
26'
Iván Jaime
44'
45'
🔁Alberto Jiménezout: Ilias Kostis
🔁Kirian Rodríguezout: Elías Romero
45'
49'
Matías Orozco
54'
⚽Pablo Santiago
🔁Aboubacar Bassingaout: Manu Fuster
55'
🔁Jefte Betancor Sanchezout: Mateo Acimovic
56'
58'
🔁Matías Orozcoout: Jari Vlak
🔁Taisei Miyashiroout: Jesé Rodríguez
70'
Juanma Herzog
72'
75'
🔁Israel Suero Fernándezout: David Muale Nzanza
Elías Romero
83'
83'
🔁Adam Jakobsenout: Michal Willmann
83'
🔁Pablo Santiagoout: Martín Conde Gómez
Andrés Rodríguez Martínez
87'
Jesé Rodríguez
88'

Match stats — Las Palmas vs Castellón

37%Possession63%
5Shots15
1On target7
3Corners6
0.31xG2.35

Goals against chances

Las Palmas0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth
Castellón3 from 2.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Las Palmas 5-4-1
  • 13José CaroG
  • 25Valentín PezzolesiD
  • 4Álex SuárezD
  • 15Juan HerzogD
  • 23A. RodriguezD
  • 26A. BassingaD
  • 11T. MiyashiroM
  • 20Kirian RodríguezM
  • 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
  • 24Iván JaimeM
  • 7Jefté BetancorF
Substitutes
  • 14Manu FusterM
  • 29Elías RomeroF
  • 32Rafa CruzF
  • 21G. BonfantiD
  • 16Mateo AcimovicM
  • 12E. LoiodiceM
  • 30I. MedinaF
  • 43Eduard Mohedano SerranoG
  • 3N. OpokuD
Coach: Juan Manuel Rodríguez
Castellón 4-4-2
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5Alberto JiménezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 14Iñigo CórdobaD
  • 18Pablo SantiagoM
  • 8BarriM
  • 6M. OrozcoM
  • 21Álvaro MartínM
  • 10Israel SueroF
  • 16A. JakobsenF
Substitutes
  • 12Lucas AlcázarD
  • 19Hamza BellariF
  • 11F. CeccheriniD
  • 20Martín CondeD
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 23Varo GarcíaF
  • 15I. KostisD
  • 24D. Muale NzanzaF
  • 1A. SaipiG
Coach: Pablo Hernández

Form going into Las Palmas vs Castellón

Las Palmas

Segunda División

  • L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026

Castellón

Segunda División

  • L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Las Palmas136251921-220
2Castellón13931245+1930

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Castellón

  • 21 February 2026Las Palmas 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
  • 30 November 2025Castellón 1–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 27 February 2021Castellón 4–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 21 October 2020Las Palmas 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
  • 17 December 2019Castellón 0–2 Las PalmasCopa del Rey

Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Castellón

Las Palmas

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Israel Suero62
  • A. Jakobsen41
  • Ousmane Camara41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Castellón won 3–0 at Las Palmas. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Israel Suero Fernández 18' for Castellón, Agustín Sienra 22' for Castellón, Pablo Santiago 54' for Castellón. On expected goals it finished 0.31–2.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Las Palmas a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.2% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For Castellón the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.4% going in: 68.8% after a win, 62.9% after a draw, 57.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.8%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.