Eibar vs Mallorca Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 1-1 Mallorca.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Eibar, 28% draw, 32% Mallorca — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Mallorca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jon MikelG
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 24Juan BernatD
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 21Iván GilM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 28Lucas NuñezM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 14OlaetxeaM
- 18M. AranaD
- 15Jair AmadorD
- 17PejiñoF
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 15John NwankwoD
- 24M. ValjentD
- 21RaílloD
- 5Alberto MorenoD
- 11Zito LuvumboM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 6Antonio SánchezM
- 33Adrian LisoM
- 18FuentesF
- 20Pablo TorreF
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 25Iván CuéllarG
- 10DarderM
- 2Guille FernándezM
- 30J. KalumbaF
- 3Toni LatoD
- 4David LópezD
- 9Abdón PratsF
- 22A. SouhmahoroD
Form going into Eibar vs Mallorca
Eibar
Segunda División
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
Mallorca
Segunda División
- W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Mallorca
- 5 January 2022Eibar 1–2 MallorcaCopa del Rey
- 7 March 2020Eibar 1–2 MallorcaLa Liga
- 17 August 2019Mallorca 2–1 EibarLa Liga
Leading scorers: Eibar and Mallorca
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar and Mallorca drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Eibar at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adrian Fuentes 52' for Mallorca, Iván Gil (penalty) 90+4' for Eibar. Sent off: John Donald (Mallorca) 81'. On expected goals it finished 2.49–2.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eibar a 62.0% chance to finish in the top four: 67.3% after a win, 61.8% after a draw, 55.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 61.8%.
For Mallorca the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 53.4% going in: 60.6% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 53.1%.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Eibar v Mallorca has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Eibar win40%▲ +1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Mallorca win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.