Bolton vs Preston Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 2-1 Preston.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Bolton, 22% draw, 34% Preston — fair odds of 2.27, 4.55 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Preston
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jack BonhamG
- 27Luca StephensonD
- 3Chris ForinoD
- 14Akin FamewoD
- 25Max ConwayD
- 8Josh SheehanM
- 21Ethan ErhahonM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
- 45John McAteeM
- 11Thierry GaleM
- 10Sam DalbyF
- 16Samuel Iling JuniorF
- 39Ryan HardieF
- 18Eoin ToalD
- 5Lewis BruntD
- 7Kyliane DongF
- 23David HarringtonG
- 29Cyrus ChristieD
- 6Ben DaviesD
- 12David WatsonM
- 1Daniel IversenG
- 2Pol ValentínD
- 14Jordan StoreyD
- 6Liam LindsayD
- 16Andrew HughesD
- 8Ali McCannM
- 15Jordan ThompsonM
- 7Alfie DevineM
- 10Callum LangM
- 37Delano BurgzorgM
- 28Milutin OsmajićF
- 27Leo LeroyM
- 24Odeluga OffiahD
- 9Jusef ErabiF
- 3Andrija VukčevićD
- 11Thierry SmallD
- 21Lee NichollsG
- 32Ed NolanD
- 23Andrew MoranM
- 30George GrybaF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Preston
- 15 August 2026Bolton 2–1 PrestonChampionship
- 26 July 2025Bolton 2–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2021Bolton 1–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2019Bolton 1–2 PrestonChampionship
- 1 September 2018Preston 2–2 BoltonChampionship
- 3 March 2018Bolton 1–3 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Bolton and Preston
Bolton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.