VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 0-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% VfL Osnabrück, 21% draw, 18% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Osnabrück at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Jonas KrumreyG
- 27Robin FabinskiD
- 24Jannik MüllerD
- 25Niklas WiemannD
- 31Patrick KammerbauerM
- 26Fridolin WagnerM
- 15Bjarke JacobsenM
- 23Tony LesueurM
- 29David KopaczF
- 11Robin MeißnerF
- 10Ismail BadjieF
- 28Konrad FaberD
- 8Leonhard MünstM
- 22Bernd RiesselmannF
- 6Bryan HenningM
- 19Leon OpitzM
- 1Niklas SauterG
- 20Theo JanottaD
- 18Lukas Leonard BornscheinD
- 17Luca RaimundF
- 1Dominik ReimannG
- 28Pierre NadjombeD
- 5Tobias MüllerD
- 3Anselmo Garcia McNultyD
- 17Alexander NollenbergerD
- 21Falko MichelM
- 38Luka HyryläinenM
- 33Leon MergnerM
- 8Emmanuel IyohaF
- 22Mateusz ŻukowskiF
- 23Barış AtikF
- 29Richmond TachieF
- 4Eldin DžogovićD
- 14Tony ReitzM
- 6Paul JaeckelD
- 35Magnus BaarsF
- 30Noah KruthG
- 24Tarek ChahedD
- 20Kevin MantheyF
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Osnabrück
- L3-4away to 1. FC Heidenheim8 August 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
- L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
- 15 August 2026VfL Osnabrück 0–3 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 5 September 2024VfL Osnabrück 3–4 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2024FC Magdeburg 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 25 November 2023VfL Osnabruck 0–2 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 14 May 2022VfL Osnabruck 1–5 FC Magdeburg3. Liga
- 11 December 2021FC Magdeburg 2–1 VfL Osnabruck3. Liga
Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and 1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Osnabrück
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
1. FC Magdeburg
- A. Nollenberger3 goals1 assists
- E. Iyoha3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.