Everton vs Manchester United Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Everton 2-2 Manchester United.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Everton, 26% draw, 40% Manchester United — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Everton vs Manchester United
Line-ups
- 1J. PickfordG
- 34M. RöhlD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
- 58B. GrahamF
- 30H. HackneyM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 20T. DiblingF
- 10J. GrealishM
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 5M. KeaneD
- 2A. Maitland-NilesM
- 12M. TraversG
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 23L. ShawD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 7M. MountM
- 13P. DorguD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 15L. YoroD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 26A. HeavenD
- 12K. DarlowG
Form going into Everton vs Manchester United
Everton
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
Manchester United
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Manchester United
- 6 September 2026Everton 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 23 February 2026Everton 0–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 24 November 2025Manchester United 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 3 August 2025Manchester United 2–2 EvertonPremier League - Summer Series
- 22 February 2025Everton 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 1 December 2024Manchester United 4–0 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Everton and Manchester United
Everton
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.