Everton vs Manchester United Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Everton 2-2 Manchester United.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Everton, 26% draw, 40% Manchester United — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester United at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Everton vs Manchester United
Line-ups
- 1J. PickfordG
- 34M. RöhlD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
- 58B. GrahamF
- 30H. HackneyM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 20T. DiblingF
- 10J. GrealishM
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 5M. KeaneD
- 2A. Maitland-NilesM
- 12M. TraversG
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 23L. ShawD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 7M. MountM
- 13P. DorguD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 15L. YoroD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 26A. HeavenD
- 12K. DarlowG
Form going into Everton vs Manchester United
Everton
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
Manchester United
All competitions we cover
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Manchester United
- 23 February 2026Everton 0–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 24 November 2025Manchester United 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 3 August 2025Manchester United 2–2 EvertonPremier League - Summer Series
- 22 February 2025Everton 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 1 December 2024Manchester United 4–0 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Everton and Manchester United
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes42
- B. Mbeumo40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Everton and Manchester United drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester United at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Mbeumo 46' for Manchester United, Tyrique George 83' for Everton, Benjamin Šeško 88' for Manchester United, Ainsley Maitland-Niles 90+6' for Everton.
How the call on Everton v Manchester United has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is Manchester United's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Everton win34%▼ −1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Manchester United win40%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.