St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% St. Louis City, 27% draw, 27% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
Minnesota United FC
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024St. Louis City 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.