12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs Gnistan Veikkausliiga prediction & result

OTC Stadion, Oulu
Full time1 2

Final score: AC Oulu 1-2 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% AC Oulu, 29% draw, 34% Gnistan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Oulu at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
Adam Jouhi
47'
Bogdan Milovanov
58'
M. Pitkanen (OG)
60'
🔁S. Ylatupaout: R. Eremenko
🔁C. Trianaout: L. Ghezali
61'
70'
🔁J. Latonenout: O. Hannula
🔁T. Kaukuaout: N. Jokelainen
71'
🔁M. Arsaloout: J. Paananen
71'
🔁out: E. Kallio
71'
J. Paananen
75'
77'
Rachide Gnanou
82'
R. Eremenko (pen)
🔁O. Kemppainenout: S. Sipola
84'
86'
🔁A. Atarahout: S. Eremenko
Julius Paananen
90'

Match stats — AC Oulu vs Gnistan

53%Possession47%
11Shots13
5On target4
3Corners3

Line-ups

AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkanenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18A. CassamaM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenM
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 9R. RiskiF
Substitutes
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 3A. LietsaD
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 11L. GhezaliM
Coach: Mikko Isokangas
Gnistan 3-4-3
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 3RuxiD
  • 24R. GnanouD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
  • 23S. YlatupaM
  • 10J. LatonenF
  • 7A. AtarahF
Substitutes
  • 13O. LyberopoulosG
  • 2B. DahlstromD
  • 25N. RossiD
  • 26R. EremenkoF
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 14S. EremenkoM
  • 45K. LaunialaF
Coach: Jussi Leppalahti

Form going into AC Oulu vs Gnistan

AC Oulu

  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
  • L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026

Gnistan

  • D1-1KuPS8 September 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
  • W3-2Ilves17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AC Oulu2210482525034
4Gnistan2210663629+736

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs Gnistan

  • 12 September 2026AC Oulu 1–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 18 July 2026AC Oulu 0–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 4 April 2026Gnistan 1–5 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 25 August 2025Gnistan 3–2 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 10 May 2025AC Oulu 2–3 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 27 September 2024Gnistan 1–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and Gnistan

AC Oulu

  • J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
  • E. Kallio2 goals

Gnistan

  • A. Akinyemi3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.