Luton vs Leicester League One prediction & result
Final score: Luton 2-1 Leicester.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Luton, 24% draw, 28% Leicester — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Luton at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Luton vs Leicester
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SheaG
- 25I. JonesD
- 5M. AndersenD
- 6G. JohnstonD
- 3K. NaismithD
- 8L. WalshM
- 17T. Mendel-IdowuM
- 18J. ClarkM
- 10J. DonleyM
- 45K. PalmerM
- 21N. WellsF
- 7J. RichardsM
- 12J. JohnsonD
- 24Joshua KeeleyG
- 15T. MengiD
- 9C. MarshallF
- 44D. ColeF
- 11Emilio LawrenceF
- 29A. McCarthyG
- 16W. O'HoraD
- 15H. SouttarD
- 5C. OkoliD
- 37W. AlvesM
- 6J. LundstramM
- 25L. PageM
- 33L. ThomasM
- 36S. BraybrookeM
- 27K. DoyleM
- 17E. RiisF
- 7W. BurnsF
- 8C. ChaplinF
- 11L. CullenF
- 14B. De Cordova-ReidF
- 24I. KangasniemiD
- 21F. RavizzoliG
- 12W. SmallboneM
Form going into Luton vs Leicester
Luton
League One
- W2-1Barnsley20 October 2026
Leicester
League One
- W4-0away to Bromley20 October 2026
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 24 |
| 11 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Luton vs Leicester
- 24 September 2019Luton 0–4 LeicesterLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Luton and Leicester
Luton
GoalsAssists
- N. Wells72
- J. Donley43
Leicester
GoalsAssists
- E. Riis61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Luton beat Leicester 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Luton at 48%. The goals: Nahki Wells 39' for Luton, Liam Cullen 90' for Leicester, Callum Marshall 90+4' for Luton. Sent off: John Lundstram (Leicester) 85'. On expected goals it finished 1.68–1.09.
How the call on Luton v Leicester has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 24% / 28%: the biggest move is Luton's chance of winning, up 13 points.
- Luton win48%▲ +13
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Leicester win28%▼ −11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.