Notts County vs Stockport County League One prediction & result
Final score: Notts County 1-1 Stockport County.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Notts County, 29% draw, 40% Stockport County — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Stockport County at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Notts County vs Stockport County
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. GibbonsG
- 12L. NessD
- 3R. McDonaldD
- 4J. BedeauD
- 25N. TsaroullaM
- 27R. FinneranM
- 20S. RobertsonM
- 26I. Samuels-SmithM
- 19L. SmythF
- 9D. KanuF
- 11C. GrantF
- 15J. EvansM
- 2J. GibbonsD
- 14D. LipsiucM
- 42H. MustaphaM
- 39L. NdlovuF
- 7C. RobertsF
- 6M. SandersM
- 1Oliver WhatmuffG
- 25M. JobeD
- 6E. O'ConnellD
- 5E. PyeD
- 15R. GloverM
- 4L. BateM
- 10O. NorwoodM
- 23B. OsbornM
- 7J. DiamondF
- 19K. WoottonF
- 16H. WoodF
- 29Adama SidibehF
- 22M. MandronF
- 18L. FioriniM
- 30Ethan EnnisF
- 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
- 9B. AndréssonF
- 20J. AdigunM
Form going into Notts County vs Stockport County
Notts County
League One
- W2-0Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
Stockport County
League One
- W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 14 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Stockport County
- 16 April 2024Notts County 2–5 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 22 December 2023Stockport County 2–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 15 March 2022Stockport County 3–0 Notts CountyNational League
- 23 October 2021Notts County 2–1 Stockport CountyNational League
- 23 February 2021Stockport County 0–0 Notts CountyNational League
- 16 January 2021Stockport County 1–2 Notts CountyFA Trophy
Leading scorers: Notts County and Stockport County
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton102
- J. Diamond63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Notts County and Stockport County drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Stockport County at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Scott Robertson 11' for Notts County, Adama Sidibeh 81' for Stockport County. On expected goals it finished 0.38–2.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Notts County a 12.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 8.6% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.2%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
For Stockport County the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 30.2% going in: 34.3% after a win, 28.9% after a draw, 25.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.9%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.