24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad Liga I prediction & result

Mioveni
Referee: Gabriel Mihuleac, Romania
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Arges Pitesti 0-1 Uta Arad.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Arges Pitesti, 33% draw, 29% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arges Pitesti at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arges Pitesti0%Draw3%Uta Arad97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽Marius Coman
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe
45'
🔁Claudiu Micovschiout: Vadim Rață
45'
🔁Oluwatobiloba Alagbeout: Silviu Balaure
45'
🔁Patrick dulceaout: Taylor Luvambo
45'
54'
Sota Mino
68'
🔁Jayson Papeauout: Marinos Tzionis
🔁Ionut Laurentiu Radescuout: Gabriel Charpentier
69'
Vadim Rață
76'
🔁Ricardo Matosout: Robert Moldoveanu
79'
79'
Antoni Ivanov
Leard·Sadriu
81'
82'
🔁omar sawy elout: Ismet Sinani
90'
Sota Mino
90+1'
🔁Marius Comanout: Samuel Gueulette
Florin Gheorghe·Borta
90+2'

Match stats — Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad

56%Possession44%
14Shots16
3On target5
9Corners4
1.5xG0.68

Goals against chances

Arges Pitesti0 from 1.50 xGless than the chances were worth
Uta Arad1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arges Pitesti 4-3-3
  • 77I. NikićG
  • 2A. TofanD
  • 23F. BorţaD
  • 3L. SadriuD
  • 25Tiago GonçalvesD
  • 16I. RădescuM
  • 69O. AdefunyibomiM
  • 11Y. PîrvuM
  • 19C. MicovschiF
  • 17Ricardo MatosF
  • 20P. DulceaF
Substitutes
  • 34C. CăbuzG
  • 15Guilherme GaruttiD
  • 27Rober SierraM
  • 92T. LuvamboD
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 8M. MamadouF
  • 80X. EmmersM
  • 96S. BalaureD
  • 9G. CharpentierF
Coach: Bogdan Andone
Uta Arad 4-2-3-1
  • 1Márcio RosaG
  • 6A. IvanovD
  • 15P. OuanehD
  • 22R. BădescuD
  • 3S. AlomeroviсD
  • 5S. MinoM
  • 8A. RomanM
  • 42O. El SawyM
  • 77J. PapeauM
  • 11H. AbdallahM
  • 9M. ComanF
Substitutes
  • 14S. GueuletteM
  • 10M. TzionisF
  • 33A. GorceaG
  • 20Denis TaroiM
  • 7Ismet SinaniF
  • 17Roland Remus Patrik SabauD
  • 18Piciorus Deean Kevin IonutM
Coach: A. Mihalcea

Form going into Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad

Arges Pitesti

Liga I

  • D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 October 2026
  • L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026

Uta Arad

Liga I

  • W1-0CFR 1907 Cluj18 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Arges Pitesti154381017-715
10Uta Arad155371620-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad

  • 31 January 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta AradLiga I
  • 13 September 2025Uta Arad 3–3 Arges PitestiLiga I
  • 8 May 2023Arges Pitesti 2–2 Uta AradLiga I
  • 30 October 2022Uta Arad 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
  • 16 July 2022Arges Pitesti 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
  • 27 November 2021Uta Arad 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I

Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad

Arges Pitesti

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Uta Arad

GoalsAssists

  • M. Coman50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Uta Arad won 1–0 at Arges Pitesti. The model had leaned towards a win for Arges Pitesti at 38% and given a win for Uta Arad 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Marius Coman 17' for Uta Arad. Sent off: Sota Mino (Uta Arad) 90'. On expected goals it finished 1.50–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arges Pitesti a 19.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.8% after a win, 20.8% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.

For Uta Arad the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 17.8% going in: 24.9% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.