31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Swindon Town vs Rotherham League Two prediction & result

County Ground, Swindon
Referee: I. Searle
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Swindon Town 2-1 Rotherham.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Swindon Town, 25% draw, 25% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Swindon Town at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swindon Town99%Draw1%Rotherham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Jili Buyabu
🔁James Ballout: Joseph Hungbo
42'
⚽Jack Thomsonassist: Dan Butler
45+3'
55'
🔁brandon coverout: Sonny Aljofree
55'
🔁Aaron Nemaneout: George Sebine
55'
🔁Joe Raffertyout: Brandon Williams
🔁Tom Nicholsout: Ollie Palmer
60'
72'
Kieran Ngwenya
🔁Dan Butlerout: Joel McGregor
75'
🔁Joe Snowdonout: James Debayo
76'
76'
🔁Josh Austerfieldout: K. Lolas
76'
🔁Paul Mullinout: Tom Bradshaw
79'
Dominic Iorfa
80'
A. Bruce
⚽Joseph Hungbo
81'
87'
⚽Denzel Hall
90+5'
Denzel Hall

Match stats — Swindon Town vs Rotherham

74%Possession26%
15Shots3
4On target2
7Corners0
1.06xG0.42

Goals against chances

Swindon Town2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rotherham1 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Swindon Town 3-4-2-1
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 6J. BallD
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 34B. KirkmanD
  • 2M. ClarkM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 26D. ButlerM
  • 7T. NicholsM
  • 19J. SnowdonM
  • 23A. DrinanF
Substitutes
  • 18J. DebayoD
  • 15J. HungboF
  • 33Joel McGregorD
  • 39L. MillardF
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 28O. PalmerF
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
Coach: Ian Holloway
Rotherham 4-3-3
  • 13J. EyestoneG
  • 2J. RaffertyD
  • 12D. HallD
  • 27D. IorfaD
  • 5K. NgwenyaD
  • 28Brandon Ashley CoverM
  • 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
  • 4J. AusterfieldM
  • 23A. NemaneF
  • 10P. MullinF
  • 24J. BuyabuF
Substitutes
  • 33B. WilliamsD
  • 19George SebineF
  • 20K. LolasM
  • 1T. CannG
  • 9T. BradshawF
  • 14Sonny AljofreeD
  • 18L. AgbaireD
Coach: A. Bruce

Form going into Swindon Town vs Rotherham

Swindon Town

League Two

  • D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

Rotherham

League Two

  • D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
  • D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
  • L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rotherham did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Rotherham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rotherham scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Swindon Town155461621-519
23Rotherham142661825-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Rotherham

  • 1 November 2025Rotherham 1–2 Swindon TownFA Cup
  • 3 May 2014Swindon Town 1–2 RotherhamLeague One
  • 12 October 2013Rotherham 0–4 Swindon TownLeague One
  • 14 January 2012Rotherham 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 3 September 2011Swindon Town 3–2 RotherhamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Rotherham

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Rotherham

GoalsAssists

  • P. Mullin80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Swindon Town beat Rotherham 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Swindon Town at 50%. The goals: Jack Thomson 45+3' for Swindon Town, Joseph Hungbo 81' for Swindon Town, Denzel Hall 87' for Rotherham. Sent off: Jili Buyabu (Rotherham) 4', Dominic Iorfa (Rotherham) 79', A. Bruce (Rotherham) 80'. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rotherham a 31.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 24.9% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.4%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Swindon Town v Rotherham has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Swindon Town's chance of winning, up 13 points.

  1. Swindon Town win50%▲ +13
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. Rotherham win25%▼ −9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.