Salford City vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Salford City 2-1 Exeter City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Salford City, 34% draw, 27% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.56, 2.94 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Salford City at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Salford City vs Exeter City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1W. NorrisG
- 14A. OdohD
- 22A. OluwoD
- 17D. ScarrD
- 4W. AimsonD
- 29L. GarbuttD
- 7B. WoodburnM
- 16E. BondsM
- 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
- 43L. MolyneuxM
- 9M. LangstaffF
- 23D. UdohF
- 2N. AsiimweD
- 26L. BurgeG
- 18M. ButcherM
- 15B. CooperD
- 20O. TurtonD
- 47Riley CarrollF
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 14H. KiteM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 20George BirchM
- 8T. PerryM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 19S. CoxF
- 23Ethan SutherlandD
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 18Liam OakesD
- 40E. JamesD
- 24V. HarperD
- 10J. GordonF
- 12R. ColeM
Form going into Salford City vs Exeter City
Salford City
League Two
- W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
- W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
Exeter City
League Two
- W2-1Fleetwood Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 32 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Exeter City
- 12 March 2022Exeter City 0–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 30 October 2021Salford City 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 27 March 2021Exeter City 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 12 September 2020Salford City 2–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 14 December 2019Salford City 0–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Exeter City
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- M. Langstaff51
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Salford City beat Exeter City 2–1. The model had made a win for Salford City its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sonny Cox 34' for Exeter City, Luke Garbutt 66' for Salford City, Will Aimson 88' for Salford City. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.86.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Salford City a 65.9% chance to finish in the top three: 70.7% after a win, 64.7% after a draw, 60.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.7%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.
For Exeter City the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 12.6% going in: 18.2% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Salford City v Exeter City has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 34% / 27%: the biggest move is the draw, up 5 points.
- Salford City win39%▼ −3
- Draw34%▲ +5
- Exeter City win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.