31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Shrewsbury vs Gillingham League Two prediction & result

The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury
Referee: N. Hair
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Shrewsbury 1-2 Gillingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Shrewsbury, 27% draw, 32% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shrewsbury at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shrewsbury0%Draw5%Gillingham95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Harry Waldockassist: Conor McManus
22'
Ethan·Coleman
Gavin Cowan
38'
William Boyle
52'
57'
Logan Dobbs
⚽George Lloyd (pen)
59'
🔁George Lloydout: Michael Golding
63'
65'
🔁Lamin Sillahout: Tom Eaves
73'
🔁Ronan Chapman Haleout: Armani Little
73'
🔁Ethan·Colemanout: Bradley Dack
80'
⚽Andy Smith
81'
🔁Nick Freemanout: Garath McCleary
Luca Hoole
82'
🔁Josh Davisonout: Joseph Gbode
83'
🔁Luca Hooleout: Arkelle Jude-Boyd
83'
87'
Armani Little
🔁Kevin Berkoeout: Lino Sousa
90+1'
🔁Josh Ruffelsout: Jeval Thompson-Mckenzie
90+1'

Match stats — Shrewsbury vs Gillingham

56%Possession44%
15Shots11
6On target6
7Corners2
2.07xG1.87

Goals against chances

Shrewsbury1 from 2.07 xGless than the chances were worth
Gillingham2 from 1.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
  • 1William Michael BrookG
  • 6S. StubbsD
  • 5W. BoyleD
  • 3J. RuffelsD
  • 2L. HooleM
  • 10T. SangM
  • 21will grayM
  • 11K. BerkoeM
  • 18K. M. BrownM
  • 9G. LloydF
  • 13J. DavisonF
Substitutes
  • 30J. Thompson-McKenzieM
  • 32Cameron GregoryG
  • 23I. LeeD
  • 27J. GbodeF
  • 20M. GoldingM
  • 17Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-BoydD
  • 24L. SousaD
Coach: G. Cowan
Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 3Conor McManusM
  • 24H. WaldockF
  • 10Ronan HaleF
  • 11L. SillahF
Substitutes
  • 12G. McClearyM
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 39T. EavesF
  • 23B. DackM
  • 18S. KendallM
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 40R. LuthraG
Coach: G. Ainsworth

Form going into Shrewsbury vs Gillingham

Shrewsbury

League Two

  • D3-3away to Rotherham24 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
  • W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026

Gillingham

League Two

  • L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
  • D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Shrewsbury156361923-421
12Gillingham155552021-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham

  • 2 May 2026Gillingham 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • 29 November 2025Shrewsbury 3–3 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 25 January 2022Gillingham 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 28 August 2021Shrewsbury 2–1 GillinghamLeague One
  • 10 April 2021Gillingham 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 3 October 2020Shrewsbury 1–1 GillinghamLeague One

Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Gillingham

Shrewsbury

GoalsAssists

  • J. Davison51

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gillingham won 2–1 at Shrewsbury. The model had leaned towards a win for Shrewsbury at 41% and given a win for Gillingham 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Harry Waldock 3' for Gillingham, George Lloyd (penalty) 59' for Shrewsbury, Andy Smith 80' for Gillingham. On expected goals it finished 2.07–1.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shrewsbury a 9.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.9% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.9%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Gillingham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.6% going in: 5.1% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shrewsbury v Gillingham has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Shrewsbury's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Shrewsbury win41%▲ +7
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Gillingham win32%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.