31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Port Vale vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Referee: E. Heaslip
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Port Vale 4-2 Rochdale.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Port Vale, 31% draw, 29% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Port Vale at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Port Vale99%Draw1%Rochdale0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Onel Hernándezassist: Kyle Dempsey
2'
⚽George Byers (pen)
11'
15'
Harvey Gilmour
⚽Jordan Gabriel
22'
33'
Glenn Middleton
38'
Cian Hayes
45'
🔁Zain Silcott-Duberryout: Edward Francis
45'
🔁Cian Hayesout: Luke Hannant
45'
🔁Glenn Middletonout: Ian Henderson
Cameron Humphreys
48'
🔁Max Watters out: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
53'
🔁Onel Hernándezout: Oliver Lynch
54'
George Byers
62'
🔁George Byersout: Rhys Walters
70'
72'
🔁Babajide Ezekiel Adeekoout: Jamie Paterson
72'
🔁Kaiden Wilsonout: sam beckwith
82'
⚽Ian Hendersonassist: Luke Hannant
⚽Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Noralesassist: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
86'
🔁George Cardinal Joseph·Hallout: Maleace asamoah
87'
🔁Jordan Gabrielout: Kyle John
88'
90+4'
⚽Charlie Tasker

Match stats — Port Vale vs Rochdale

49%Possession51%
11Shots11
6On target5
4Corners4
3.16xG0.77

Goals against chances

Port Vale4 from 3.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rochdale2 from 0.77 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Port Vale 3-5-2
  • 20M. MarošiG
  • 25C. HumphreysD
  • 4J. MoonD
  • 5C. HallD
  • 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
  • 10K. DempseyM
  • 7G. ByersM
  • 33G. HallM
  • 3J. HeadleyM
  • 36M. WattersF
  • 11O. HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 27M. AsamoahF
  • 2K. JohnD
  • 12A. McGowanD
  • 1J. SmithG
  • 38R. WaltersM
  • 24K. FigueroaF
  • 14O. LynchF
Coach: J. Brady
Rochdale 4-2-3-1
  • 20Sam William John WallerG
  • 26S. SherringD
  • 44A. FlintD
  • 3Kaiden WilsonD
  • 2C. TaskerD
  • 17B. AdeekoM
  • 8H. GilmourM
  • 7C. HayesM
  • 11Z. Silcott-DuberryM
  • 45G. MiddletonM
  • 39D. BrownF
Substitutes
  • 35J. PatersonF
  • 40I. HendersonF
  • 19L. HannantM
  • 14E. FrancisM
  • 33S. BeckwithD
  • 12J. SpavenG
  • 56Reece LeonardM
Coach: Ian Watson

Form going into Port Vale vs Rochdale

Port Vale

League Two

  • L0-2away to York24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026

Rochdale

League Two

  • L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
  • D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Port Vale135351416-218
22Rochdale154381727-1015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Rochdale

  • 23 July 2022Rochdale 2–3 Port ValeFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 February 2022Rochdale 1–1 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 5 October 2021Port Vale 1–0 RochdaleEFL Trophy
  • 4 September 2021Port Vale 2–3 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 29 August 2020Port Vale 2–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2017Rochdale 3–0 Port ValeLeague One

The result against the call

Port Vale beat Rochdale 4–2. The model had made a win for Port Vale its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Onel Hernández 2' for Port Vale, George Byers (penalty) 11' for Port Vale, Jordan Gabriel 22' for Port Vale, Ian Henderson 82' for Rochdale, Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales 86' for Port Vale, Charlie Tasker 90+4' for Rochdale. On expected goals it finished 3.16–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Port Vale a 15.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 11.4% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 19.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.4%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Rochdale the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 22.5% going in: 17.3% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Port Vale v Rochdale has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 31% / 29%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Port Vale win40%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Rochdale win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.