Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Tromso 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tromso, 28% draw, 27% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Tromso at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 37S. InnvaerD
- 24V. OsujiD
- 21L. HienD
- 30I. VadebuD
- 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 7L. O. LarsenM
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 22H. LarsenF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 27M. MikkelsenM
- 3M. TonnessenD
- 8J. GrundtM
- 15V. EkblomF
- 17I. DahlqvistM
- 20Ieltsin Camoes
- 19A. L. ElvebuM
- 16B. MyrvoldD
- 87L. OyG
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 2M. LodeD
- 21A. HiimD
- 10S. SorliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 6A. SherM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 33A. NibeF
- 1J. LarsenG
- 32E. WichneD
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 5L. HoylandD
- 17N. WilliamsM
- 22V. E. HalvorsenM
- 18B. GueyeM
- 7Camil MmaeeM
- 15M. OpokuM
Form going into Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Brighton27 August 2026
- D0-0Brighton20 August 2026
- L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj13 August 2026
- W5-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj6 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tromso had three goals or more.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 19 April 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 2 November 2025Tromso 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 25 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 13 February 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
- 1 December 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Tromso at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.51.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.