30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result

Romssa Arena
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Tromso 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tromso, 28% draw, 27% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tromso at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tromso5%Draw92%Sarpsborg 08 FF3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Heine Asen Larsen
14'
Heine Asen Larsen
57'
63'
🔁A. Nibeout: V. E. Halvorsen
Leon Hien
74'
🔁H. Larsenout: Ieltsin Camoes
76'
79'
🔁A. Sherout: M. Opoku
82'
Claus Niyukuri
🔁S. Innvaerout: I. Dahlqvist
82'
85'
🔁A. Hiimout: E. Wichne
85'
🔁C. Niyukuriout: P. Reinhardsen
🔁L. O. Larsenout: J. Grundt
90+2'

Match stats — Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

51%Possession49%
15Shots5
7On target2
5Corners3
1.38xG0.51

Goals against chances

Tromso0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Sarpsborg 08 FF0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 37S. InnvaerD
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 21L. HienD
  • 30I. VadebuD
  • 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 7L. O. LarsenM
  • 10T. NyhammerF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 3M. TonnessenD
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 15V. EkblomF
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 20Ieltsin Camoes
  • 19A. L. ElvebuM
  • 16B. MyrvoldD
Coach: Jorgen Vik
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 87L. OyG
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 10S. SorliM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 6A. SherM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
  • 33A. NibeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LarsenG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 5L. HoylandD
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 22V. E. HalvorsenM
  • 18B. GueyeM
  • 7Camil MmaeeM
  • 15M. OpokuM
Coach: Even Sel

Form going into Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Tromso

  • L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
  • W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Tromso2010553727+1035
9Sarpsborg 08 FF206772326-325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • 30 August 2026Tromso 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 19 April 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
  • 2 November 2025Tromso 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 25 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
  • 13 February 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 December 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 TromsoEliteserien

Leading scorers: Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF

Tromso

  • H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D. Karlsbakk6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.