Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 1-4 Fredrikstad.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 26% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
Fredrikstad
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 32 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad
- 11 July 2026Fredrikstad 0–2 LillestromEliteserien
- 31 January 2026Lillestrom 2–2 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 21 May 2025Lillestrom 1–1 FredrikstadNM Cupen
- 22 March 2025Fredrikstad 1–0 LillestromFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2024Fredrikstad 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 20 May 2024Lillestrom 0–3 FredrikstadEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
- Vá5 goals5 assists
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.