30 August 2026, 17:15 UTC

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result

Åråsen, Lillestrøm
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Lillestrom 1-4 Fredrikstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lillestrom, 29% draw, 26% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lillestrom at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lillestrom0%Draw1%Fredrikstad99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽S. Owusuassist: S. Sorlokk
16'
•Benjamin Faraas
Frederik Elkær
17'
18'
⚽M. Nilsson (pen)
•Yaw Paintsil
35'
⚽F. Gulbrandsen (pen)
37'
🔁F. Elkaerout: D. Bassi
46'
53'
Benjamin Faraas
59'
🔁S. Sorlokkout: F. Ghebreyohannes
59'
🔁S. Leachout: J. Jezierski
59'
🔁S. Laghzaouiout: G. Wesseh
•Felix Vá
61'
🔁F. Gulbrandsenout: T. Olsen
64'
65'
⚽B. Faraasassist: H. Skogvold
66'
🔁S. Owusuout: S. Rafn
🔁E. Kitolanoout: H. Woxen
72'
79'
⚽B. Faraasassist: G. Wesseh
83'
🔁I. Amundsenout: U. Fredriksen
Harald Woxen
86'

Match stats — Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad

54%Possession46%
18Shots13
5On target9
10Corners3
2.34xG3.11

Goals against chances

Lillestrom1 from 2.34 xGless than the chances were worth
Fredrikstad4 from 3.11 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 4E. B. GarnasD
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 11F. ElkaerD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 20Felix VaM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
Substitutes
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 5S. FossD
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 6H. WoxenM
  • 10T. OlsenF
  • 22D. BassiF
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 25S. AkanjiF
Coach: Hans Odegaard
Fredrikstad 3-4-3
  • 77M. BorsheimG
  • 38I. AmundsenD
  • 4F. HolmeD
  • 28S. OwusuD
  • 16D. EidM
  • 6S. LeachM
  • 14M. NilssonM
  • 13S. SorlokkM
  • 7B. FaraasF
  • 23H. SkogvoldF
  • 9S. LaghzaouiF
Substitutes
  • 1O. OvretveitG
  • 19F. GhebreyohannesD
  • 5S. RafnD
  • 12U. FredriksenD
  • 24L. OwusuM
  • 21J. JezierskiM
  • 29G. WessehM
  • 10J. NunezF
  • 18B. FiabemaF
Coach: Casper Rojkjaer

Form going into Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad

Lillestrom

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë27 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
  • L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026

Fredrikstad

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
  • W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026

What these results say

  • Lillestrom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fredrikstad had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lillestrom2614393935+445
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad

  • 11 July 2026Fredrikstad 0–2 LillestromEliteserien
  • 31 January 2026Lillestrom 2–2 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 May 2025Lillestrom 1–1 FredrikstadNM Cupen
  • 22 March 2025Fredrikstad 1–0 LillestromFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024Fredrikstad 2–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Lillestrom 0–3 FredrikstadEliteserien

Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Fredrikstad

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fredrikstad won 4–1 at Lillestrom. The model had leaned towards a win for Lillestrom at 45% and given a win for Fredrikstad 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Owusu 8' for Fredrikstad, M. Nilsson (penalty) 18' for Fredrikstad, F. Gulbrandsen (penalty) 37' for Lillestrom, B. Faraas 65' for Fredrikstad, B. Faraas 79' for Fredrikstad. On expected goals it finished 2.34–3.11.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.