30 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Shelbourne vs Waterford Premier Division prediction & result

Tolka Park, Dublin
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Shelbourne, 26% draw, 27% Waterford — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shelbourne at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shelbourne0%Draw5%Waterford95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kerr Mcinroyassist: James Norris
9'
17'
Noah Mawene
27'
John Mahon
38'
⚽Evan McLaughlin
🔁Evan Caffreyout: Marco Untergrabner
39'
52'
⚽Padraig Amondassist: Tom Lonergan
54'
H. Cann
Kameron Ledwidge
59'
🔁Kerr Mcinroyout: Ademipo Odubeko
62'
🔁John Martinout: Sean Boyd
63'
⚽Jonathan Lunneyassist: Jack Henry-Francis
69'
78'
🔁Padraig Amondout: Dean Mcmenamy
78'
🔁Evan McLaughlinout: Luke Heeney
85'
🔁Jørgen Voilåsout: joe ashton
88'
⚽Tom Lonerganassist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
90+2'
🔁Noah Maweneout: goforth amedu

Match stats — Shelbourne vs Waterford

75%Possession25%
16Shots17
7On target6
7Corners2
1.41xG1.79

Goals against chances

Shelbourne2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Waterford3 from 1.79 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Shelbourne 4-4-2
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 27E. CaffreyD
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18James Barry NorrisD
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 6J. LunneyM
  • 17D. KellyM
  • 22S. MooreF
  • 10J. MartinF
Substitutes
  • 31C. WalshG
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 24M. UntergrabnerD
  • 55James RocheD
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 9S. BoydF
  • 44Daniel RingF
  • 56J. WunaF
Coach: J. Russell
Waterford 4-4-2
  • 1S. McMullanG
  • 16H. CannD
  • 5J. MahonD
  • 13K. LongD
  • 3Benny CoutoD
  • 20J. VoilåsM
  • 8E. McLaughlinM
  • 10C. NoonanM
  • 7N. MaweneM
  • 9P. AmondF
  • 18T. LonerganF
Substitutes
  • 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  • 32G. AmeduD
  • 6J. AshtonD
  • 12B. McKenzieD
  • 27D. McMenamyM
  • 15L. HeeneyM
  • 17J. FariaM
  • 11T. CoyleF
  • 50Noah O'BrienD
Coach: G. Coughlan

Form going into Shelbourne vs Waterford

Shelbourne

Premier Division

  • W1-0away to Bohemians23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to St Patrick's Athletic16 October 2026
  • W5-1Sligo Rovers9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026

Waterford

Premier Division

  • W3-1Drogheda United23 October 2026
  • W3-2Galway United19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Bohemians16 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shelbourne went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Shelbourne scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Shelbourne won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Waterford scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Waterford conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Waterford had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Shelbourne361213115250+249
7Waterford361013135461-743

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Waterford

  • 2 August 2026Waterford 1–0 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 22 May 2026Shelbourne 2–1 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 6 February 2026Waterford 1–1 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 26 September 2025Shelbourne 2–1 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 23 June 2025Waterford 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 5 May 2025Shelbourne 0–1 WaterfordPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Waterford

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Waterford

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lonergan167
  • P. Amond141

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Waterford won 3–2 at Shelbourne. The model had leaned towards a win for Shelbourne at 47% and given a win for Waterford 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kerr Mcinroy 9' for Shelbourne, Evan McLaughlin 38' for Waterford, Padraig Amond 52' for Waterford, Jonathan Lunney 69' for Shelbourne, Tom Lonergan 88' for Waterford. On expected goals it finished 1.41–1.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shelbourne a 72.4% chance to finish in the top four: 100.0% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 43.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.8%, 28.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shelbourne v Waterford has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Shelbourne's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Shelbourne win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Waterford win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.