30 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sligo Rovers vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result

Showgrounds, Sligo
Referee: D. Toland
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Sligo Rovers 2-2 Derry City.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Sligo Rovers, 28% draw, 49% Derry City — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derry City at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sligo Rovers2%Draw92%Derry City6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gareth McElroy
25'
⚽Ryan O'Kane
37'
41'
🔁Ciaran Groganout: Jamie Stott
🔁sean stewartout: O.Denham
45'
45'
🔁Brian Maherout: Tom Norcott
Kaiyne Woolery
48'
49'
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
51'
🔁James Olayinkaout: Liam Kelly
🔁Jack Shorrockout: Cian Kavanagh
56'
🔁Ryan O'Kaneout: James McManus
67'
70'
Tyler·Smith
71'
🔁Tyler·Smithout: Liam Boyce
71'
🔁Darragh Markeyout: Yoann Prigent
Cian Kavanagh
76'
77'
⚽Terence Dohertyassist: Gavin Whyte
🔁Daire Pattonout: Ruben Gillespie
80'
82'
⚽Terence Dohertyassist: Conor Barry
89'
Yoann Prigent

Match stats — Sligo Rovers vs Derry City

32%Possession68%
8Shots16
5On target5
3Corners5
1.36xG0.94

Goals against chances

Sligo Rovers2 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Derry City2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 4S. QuirkD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 23K. McDonaghD
  • 71D. PattonM
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 28R. O'KaneM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 41K. WooleryF
Substitutes
  • 50Ruben GillespieM
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 11C. KavanaghF
  • 49O. KellyM
  • 32Charlie McgarveyG
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 24J. O'DonnellF
  • 48Ross Ruane-DaltonF
Coach: D. Purse
Derry City 3-5-2
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 25Christy GroganD
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 31C. DowneyM
  • 10D. MarkeyM
  • 28J. OlayinkaM
  • 11G. WhyteM
  • 21Kévin SantosM
  • 29T. SmithF
  • 32T. DohertyF
Substitutes
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 4J. StottD
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 27L. BoyceF
  • 35L. KellyM
  • 50Conal McdermottG
  • 34C. O'DonnellM
  • 38Yoann PrigentF
Coach: Mark Connolly

Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Derry City

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division

  • L0-4away to Shamrock Rovers23 October 2026
  • D1-1Dundalk17 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Shelbourne9 October 2026
  • L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026

Derry City

Premier Division

  • W2-1Dundalk23 October 2026
  • W1-0St Patrick's Athletic19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Drogheda United16 October 2026
  • W1-0Galway United18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sligo Rovers conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Derry City won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Derry City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Derry City had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sligo Rovers36510212866-3825
5Derry City361115105047+348

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City

  • 7 August 2026Derry City 2–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 6 April 2026Sligo Rovers 0–0 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 6 February 2026Derry City 2–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 9 January 2026Sligo Rovers 1–0 Derry CityFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 October 2025Derry City 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 12 July 2025Sligo Rovers 2–0 Derry CityPremier Division

Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Derry City

Sligo Rovers

No player in Premier Division's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sligo Rovers and Derry City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Derry City at 49% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gareth McElroy 25' for Sligo Rovers, Ryan O'Kane 37' for Sligo Rovers, Terence Doherty 77' for Derry City, Terence Doherty 82' for Derry City. Sent off: Kaiyne Woolery (Sligo Rovers) 48'. On expected goals it finished 1.36–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derry City a 27.6% chance to finish in the top four: 49.2% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 27.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.