St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: St Patrick's Athletic 2-3 Bohemians.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% St Patrick's Athletic, 30% draw, 25% Bohemians — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
St Patrick's Athletic at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 94J. AnangG
- 4J. RedmondD
- 24L. TurnerD
- 33S. McHaleD
- 6J. LennonM
- 7Z. ElbouzediM
- 19B. BaggleyM
- 10K. LeavyM
- 11J. McClellandM
- 9A. KeenaF
- 21A. OlusanyaF
- 17R. PalmerM
- 16D. NugentM
- 8C. ForresterM
- 27R. EdmondsonF
- 3A. BreslinD
- 1D. RogersG
- 48R. SheridanM
- 34K. QuigleyM
- 32B. CannyD
- 25P. WaltersG
- 24C. ByrneD
- 12P. HickeyD
- 22S. ToddD
- 16D. PowerM
- 4N. MorahanM
- 6J. FloresM
- 11D. RooneyM
- 32M. StrodsF
- 9C. WhelanF
- 7C. ParsonsF
- 8H. VaughanM
- 3R. BurkeD
- 1K. ChorążkaG
- 5S. DialloM
- 18D. James-TaylorF
- 41P. MaddenF
- 15S. MullenD
- 21Josh AdamM
- 23Zane MyersD
Form going into St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
St Patrick's Athletic
Premier Division
- D0-0away to Galway United23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Derry City19 October 2026
- L1-2Shelbourne16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026
Bohemians
Premier Division
- L0-1Shelbourne23 October 2026
- W2-1Waterford16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026
What these results say
- St Patrick's Athletic failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for St Patrick's Athletic had two goals or fewer.
- Bohemians conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bohemians scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St Patrick's Athletic | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 31 | +24 | 60 |
| 2 | Bohemians | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 63 | 44 | +19 | 65 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Patrick's Athletic vs Bohemians
- 5 September 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 BohemiansFAI Cup
- 26 June 2026Bohemians 2–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 24 April 2026St Patrick's Athletic 3–1 BohemiansPremier Division
- 8 February 2026Bohemians 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 20 October 2025Bohemians 0–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
- 4 July 2025St Patrick's Athletic 0–0 BohemiansPremier Division
Leading scorers: St Patrick's Athletic and Bohemians
St Patrick's Athletic
GoalsAssists
- A. Keena105
- R. Edmondson101
- K. Leavy73
Bohemians
GoalsAssists
- C. Whelan136
- R. Tierney113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bohemians won 3–2 at St Patrick's Athletic. The model had leaned towards a win for St Patrick's Athletic at 45% and given a win for Bohemians 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sean mchale 9' for St Patrick's Athletic, Jordan Flores 36' for Bohemians, cian byrne 45+1' for Bohemians, Connor Parsons 57' for Bohemians, Kian Leavy 61' for St Patrick's Athletic. On expected goals it finished 1.38–2.48.
How the call on St Patrick's Athletic v Bohemians has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 30% / 25%: the biggest move is St Patrick's Athletic's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- St Patrick's Athletic win45%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Bohemians win25%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.