30 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division prediction & result

Oriel Park, Dundalk
Referee: P. McLaughlin
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dundalk 3-1 Shamrock Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Dundalk, 26% draw, 46% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shamrock Rovers at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Robert Cornwall (OG)
26'
Graham Burke
🔁Peter Cherrieout: Enda Minogue
33'
Aodh Dervin
37'
41'
Matthew Healy
45'
🔁Graham Burkeout: Jonathan Afolabi
45'
🔁Edward McGintyout: Lee Steacy
45'
🔁Roberto Lopesout: Luke O'Regan
🔁Trevor Clarkeout: leonardo gaxha
49'
🔁Aodh Dervinout: Keith Buckley
49'
⚽Daryl Horganassist: Keith Buckley
57'
62'
🔁Matthew Healyout: Gary O'Neill
62'
🔁John McGovernout: Michael Noonan
⚽Cian dillon
65'
⚽Cian dillonassist: ronan teahan
68'
🔁Tyreke Wilsonout: Luke Mulligan
77'
🔁shane traceyout: Harry Groome
77'
Ciaran Kilduff
82'

Match stats — Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers

53%Possession47%
28Shots6
6On target1
4Corners6
2.72xG0.83

Goals against chances

Dundalk3 from 2.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Shamrock Rovers1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 13P. CherrieG
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 24R. CornwallD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 22T. WilsonD
  • 17S. TraceyM
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 15T. ClarkeM
  • 11R. TeahanM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 9C. DillonF
Substitutes
  • 18K. BuckleyM
  • 14Norman GarbettM
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaF
  • 8H. GroomeM
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 20S. SafaeiG
  • 5H. WarrenD
Coach: C. Kilduff
Shamrock Rovers 3-1-4-2
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 4PicoD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 8M. HealyM
  • 22T. SobowaleM
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 24W. FitzgeraldM
  • 88J. McGovernF
  • 10G. BurkeF
Substitutes
  • 3E. StevensD
  • 25L. SteacyG
  • 26John O'SullivanM
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 17L. O'ReganM
  • 16G. O'NeillM
  • 31M. NoonanF
  • 9A. GreeneF
  • 18J. AfolabiF
Coach: S. Bradley

Form going into Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers

Dundalk

Premier Division

  • L1-2away to Derry City23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sligo Rovers17 October 2026
  • L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
  • L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026

Shamrock Rovers

Premier Division

  • W4-0Sligo Rovers23 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Galway United16 October 2026
  • W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
  • W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dundalk did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Dundalk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dundalk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dundalk361112135559-445
1Shamrock Rovers3620885938+2168

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers

  • 7 August 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–2 DundalkPremier Division
  • 15 May 2026Dundalk 1–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 23 February 2026Shamrock Rovers 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
  • 27 October 2024Dundalk 0–1 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 4 July 2024Shamrock Rovers 1–0 DundalkPremier Division
  • 17 May 2024Dundalk 1–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers

Dundalk

GoalsAssists

  • D. Horgan1210
  • G. Arubi73

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Shamrock Rovers at 46% and given a win for Dundalk 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Robert Cornwall (own goal) 23' for Shamrock Rovers, Daryl Horgan 57' for Dundalk, Cian dillon 65' for Dundalk, Cian dillon 68' for Dundalk. On expected goals it finished 2.72–0.83.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.