15 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Rostov vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Rostov Arena, Rostov
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC Rostov 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% FC Rostov, 18% draw, 17% Rubin — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Rostov at 65% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Rostov7%Draw89%Rubin4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ivan Komarov
29'
⚽T. Suleymanovassist: O. Olusegun
30'
Viktor Melekhin
46'
46'
🔁I. Saavedraout: I. Rozhkov
49'
•Igor Vujačić
Ygor Nogueira
50'
51'
⚽J. Siwe (pen)
65'
🔁R. Bezrukovout: D. Kuznetsov
72'
🔁A. Arroyoout: N. Lobov
72'
🔁M. Ignatievout: A. Jukic
🔁T. Suleymanovout: E. Golenkov
76'
🔁O. Olusegunout: Y. Mikhailov
83'
🔁A. Mironovout: D. Prokhin
90'
90+7'
🔁J. Siweout: D. N. Motorin

Match stats — FC Rostov vs Rubin

46%Possession54%
13Shots8
4On target1
5Corners2

Line-ups

FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 1R. YatimovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 10I. KomarovM
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 34D. A. GolikovG
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 27D. ProkhinD
  • 57I. ZhbanovM
  • 5Y. MikhailovM
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
  • 80K. MadrakhimovF
  • 17E. GolenkovF
Coach: Jonatan Alba
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 5I. VujacicD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 18M. IgnatievD
  • 22V. HodzaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 23R. BezrukovM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovD
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 11N. GripshiM
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into FC Rostov vs Rubin

FC Rostov

  • D0-0away to CSKA Moscow8 August 2026

Rubin

  • D1-1FC Orenburg9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Rostov82241014-48
6Rubin92611211+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Rubin

  • 15 August 2026FC Rostov 1–1 RubinPremier League
  • 6 December 2025FC Rostov 2–0 RubinPremier League
  • 17 August 2025Rubin 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
  • 11 May 2025Rubin 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
  • 9 August 2024FC Rostov 1–1 RubinPremier League
  • 11 May 2024Rubin 3–1 FC RostovPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Rubin

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Rubin

  • J. Siwe3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.