CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Moscow 1-0 Fakel.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% CSKA Moscow, 20% draw, 24% Fakel — fair odds of 1.79, 5.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 56% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
Line-ups
- 49Vladislav ToropG
- 22Milan GajićD
- 4João VictorD
- 79Kirill DanilovD
- 27MoisésD
- 31Matvey KislyakM
- 3Danil KrugovoyM
- 10Ivan OblyakovM
- 7Matheus AlvesM
- 20Matija PopovićM
- 11Tamerlan MusaevF
- 32Luciano GondouF
- 62Imran FirovM
- 18Danila KozlovM
- 17Kirill GlebovF
- 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
- 39Maksim BoriskoG
- 23Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovD
- 90Matvey LukinD
- 2Matheus ReisD
- 1Daniil FrolkinG
- 5Albert GabaraevD
- 20Igor YurganovD
- 53Matvey BardachevD
- 55Darko TodorovićM
- 23Vyacheslav YakimovM
- 52Ravil NetfullinM
- 10Ilnur AlshinM
- 99Nikolay GiorgobianiF
- 9Axel GnapiF
- 11Alexey SutorminF
- 97Butta MagomedovM
- 8Abdula BagamaevM
- 17Anton KovalevM
- 19Belajdi PusiF
- 93Merabi UridiaF
- 96Igor ObukhovG
- 35Vyacheslav DorovskikhG
- 22Houdaifa El MahasniD
- 44Yuriy ZhuravlevD
Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
CSKA Moscow
- D0-0FC Rostov8 August 2026
Fakel
- D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
- 15 August 2026CSKA Moscow 1–0 FakelPremier League
- 17 February 2025CSKA Moscow 1–1 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 8 December 2024Fakel 0–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 26 October 2024CSKA Moscow 0–0 FakelPremier League
- 7 April 2024CSKA Moscow 4–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 5 February 2024CSKA Moscow 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Fakel
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- L. Gondou2 goals1 assists
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.