11 August 2026, 00:15 UTC

Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
Full time1 2

Final score: Union Santa Fe 1-2 Central Cordoba de Santiago.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Union Santa Fe, 18% draw, 23% Central Cordoba de Santiago — fair odds of 1.69, 5.56 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Santa Fe at 59% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Santa Fe0%Draw8%Central Cordoba de Santiago92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

L. Menossiassist: J. Palacios
17'
51'
M. Santos
54'
F. Mansillaassist: L. Sequeira
🔁M. Aguirreout: M. Estigarribia
61'
Lautaro Vargas
63'
65'
🔁F. Mansillaout: Y. Casermeiro
🔁L. Vargasout: J. Pintado
68'
🔁J. Mosqueiraout: M. Luna Diale
68'
69'
Leonardo Sequeira
71'
🔁L. Sequeiraout: S. Moyano
71'
🔁L. Gonzalezout: T. Cravero
76'
Horacio Tijanovich
Lucas Menossi
79'
87'
🔁D. Barreraout: M. Iacobellis
87'
🔁M. Santosout: E. Naya
Julián Palacios
90+1'
90+7'
Santiago Moyano
90+2'
Yuri Casermeiro
🔁L. Menossiout: E. Ramirez
90+1'

Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

60%Possession40%
22Shots9
7On target4
7Corners5
1.58xG0.55

Goals against chances

Union Santa Fe1 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Central Cordoba de Santiago2 from 0.55 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union Santa Fe 4-2-3-1
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 35L. VargasD
  • 2M. RodriguezD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 12B. PittonD
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 31M. AguirreM
  • 10I. MalcorraM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 43E. RamirezF
Coach: Leonardo Madelon
Central Cordoba de Santiago 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. AguerreG
  • 20F. MartinezD
  • 2A. R. MacielD
  • 6F. MansillaD
  • 23D. CaceresD
  • 22M. VeraM
  • 11H. TijanovichM
  • 28L. SequeiraM
  • 18L. GonzalezM
  • 7D. BarreraM
  • 27M. SantosF
Substitutes
  • 25J. VallejosG
  • 21F. AguilarD
  • 33S. MoyanoD
  • 10M. IacobellisM
  • 5T. CraveroM
  • 19E. NayaF
  • 13J. GomezD
  • 55J. CardozoM
  • 17Y. CasermeiroD
Coach: Sebastian Dominguez

Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Union Santa Fe

  • W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • W1-0San Lorenzo4 August 2026
  • L0-2Atletico Tucuman31 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Union Santa Fe94141614+213
15Central Cordoba de Santiago9216511-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • 11 August 2026Union Santa Fe 1–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 February 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 10 October 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 3–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 April 2025Union Santa Fe 1–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 October 2024Union Santa Fe 0–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 March 2024Union Santa Fe 2–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Central Cordoba de Santiago

Union Santa Fe

  • C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • M. Santos7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.