11 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Lyon vs Sparta Praha UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Lyon, 20% draw, 15% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lyon at 65% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon99%Draw1%Sparta Praha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Nuamah
20'
34'
Adam Ševinský
37'
🔁A. Irvingout: J. Zeleny
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
54'
63'
🔁R. Macekout: S. Eneme
63'
🔁J. Brunesout: E. Singhateh
⚽A. Maitland-Nilesassist: C. Tolisso
66'
⚽T. Morton
72'
73'
🔁A. Karabecout: H. Sochurek
74'
🔁J. Mercadoout: V. Vitalyos
🔁A. Maitland-Nilesout: C. Mata
76'
🔁E. Nuamahout: K. Boudache
76'
🔁M. Fofanaout: J. Duranville
85'
🔁Abner Viniciusout: M. Ouedraogo
85'
🔁C. Tolissoout: N. Nartey
88'
89'
Matěj Ryneš

Match stats — Lyon vs Sparta Praha

56%Possession44%
19Shots6
11On target1
7Corners1

Line-ups

Lyon 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 16Abner ViniciusD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 7E. NuamahM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 11M. FofanaM
  • 17L. OpendaF
Substitutes
  • 25J. BenguiG
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 76M. OuedraogoD
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovcikG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. SevinskyD
  • 25A. SorensenD
  • 11M. RynesD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 10A. KarabecM
  • 7J. AlcocerM
  • 14J. BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 54L. FrancG
  • 3P. KaderabekD
  • 5S. EnemeM
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 30J. ZelenyD
Coach: Brian Priske

Form going into Lyon vs Sparta Praha

Lyon

  • L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026

Sparta Praha

  • L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
  • W2-1Lyon4 August 2026
  • W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Sparta Praha

  • 11 August 2026Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Sparta Praha 2–1 LyonUEFA Champions League
  • 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
  • 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.