10 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Santa Clara vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result

Ponta Delgada
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Santa Clara 2-2 Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Santa Clara, 23% draw, 15% Nacional — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Santa Clara at 62% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santa Clara5%Draw93%Nacional2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Paciencia
19'
⚽G. Pacienciaassist: Diogo Calila
21'
Vinicius Lopes
24'
36'
⚽Liziero (pen)
Daniel Borges
39'
40'
Wesley Gasolina
45'
⚽M. Baeza
61'
🔁J. Silvaout: F. Soares
🔁J. Tavaresout: T. Ribeiro
68'
🔁Vinicius Lopesout: Welinton Torrao
68'
70'
F. Soares
72'
🔁M. Baezaout: S. Gavriel
73'
🔁Wesley Gasolinaout: D. I. de la Cruz
🔁Daniel Borgesout: Rildo
79'
🔁Sorrisoout: Fernando
80'
80'
🔁M. Jensenout: Mateus Iseppe
80'
🔁Daniel Juniorout: Deivison
🔁Diogo Calilaout: Lucas Soares
85'

Match stats — Santa Clara vs Nacional

52%Possession48%
19Shots10
7On target4
4Corners4
1.43xG1.23

Goals against chances

Santa Clara2 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Nacional2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas FrancaG
  • 2Diogo CalilaD
  • 23S. LimaD
  • 4P. PachecoD
  • 5Guilherme RomaoD
  • 6P. FerreiraM
  • 41Daniel BorgesM
  • 99SorrisoM
  • 8J. TavaresM
  • 70Vinicius LopesM
  • 9G. PacienciaF
Substitutes
  • 12NenecaG
  • 42Lucas SoaresD
  • 20T. RibeiroM
  • 37RildoF
  • 85A. InfanteD
  • 88Hiago Santos
  • 11Welinton TorraoF
  • 17VasconcelosM
  • 21E. FernandesD
Coach: Petit
Nacional
  • 1R. MarinG
  • 34Leo SantosD
  • 6Matheus DiasD
  • 38Ze VitorD
  • 52Wesley GasolinaM
  • 28LizieroM
  • 26J. SilvaM
  • 7M. JensenM
  • 8M. BaezaF
  • 99Pablo RuanF
  • 10Daniel JuniorF
Substitutes
  • 50K. V. Medeiros de FreitasG
  • 22F. SoaresM
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 30WattsM
  • 2D. I. de la CruzD
  • 23Mateus IseppeM
  • 88DeivisonM
  • 11S. GavrielM
  • 33C. GoncalvesD

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Santa Clara6420114+714
15Nacional6114711-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Nacional

  • 10 August 2026Santa Clara 2–2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 11 May 2026Santa Clara 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 11 January 2026Nacional 3–3 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 30 March 2025Santa Clara 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 4 November 2024Nacional 2–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 17 March 2024Santa Clara 0–1 NacionalSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Nacional

Santa Clara

  • Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists

Nacional

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.