Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad de Chile 4-1 Everton de Vina.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Universidad de Chile, 24% draw, 20% Everton de Vina — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Universidad de Chile at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. CastellónG
- 3I. LichnovskyD
- 22M. ZaldiviaD
- 5N. RamírezD
- 7M. GuerreroM
- 20C. AránguizM
- 15T. ReinhartM
- 14M. MoralesM
- 28A. ArceF
- 11E. VargasF
- 23I. VásquezF
- 21M. DíazM
- 6N. FernándezD
- 17F. HormazábalF
- 18J. LuceroF
- 8I. PobleteM
- 32G. AñasgoM
- 9O. RiveroF
- 1C. ToselliG
- 29L. BarreraM
- 1I. GonzálezG
- 8L. SotoD
- 37V. VidalD
- 24D. OyarzúnD
- 14N. BaezaD
- 9J. AlfaroM
- 21B. BerríosM
- 7J. MoyaM
- 11E. RamosM
- 10A. MedinaM
- 40N. MontielF
- 25E. KirkmanG
- 4H. MagallanesD
- 29B. MartínezF
- 2Ó. OpazoD
- 20J. OvalleM
- 30C. PalaciosF
- 19V. VegaD
- 5R. GonzálezD
- 6G. CharrupÃF
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
Primera División
- W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
Everton de Vina
Primera División
- W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 22 | +25 | 51 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
- 27 September 2026Universidad de Chile 1–1 Everton de VinaCopa Chile
- 27 September 2026Everton de Vina 0–1 Universidad de ChileCopa Chile
- 18 April 2026Everton de Vina 0–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 5 November 2025Universidad de Chile 2–0 Everton de VinaPrimera División
- 27 March 2025Everton de Vina 2–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 10 November 2024Universidad de Chile 1–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas123
- A. Arce74
Everton de Vina
GoalsAssists
- A. Medina123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universidad de Chile beat Everton de Vina 4–1. The model had made a win for Universidad de Chile its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Eduardo Vargas 30' for Universidad de Chile, Eduardo Vargas 45+4' for Universidad de Chile, Agustín Arce 57' for Universidad de Chile, Cristian Palacios 80' for Everton de Vina, Eduardo Vargas 81' for Universidad de Chile. Sent off: Lucas Soto (Everton de Vina) 86'. On expected goals it finished 3.25–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad de Chile a 4.0% chance to win the league: 5.5% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.5%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Everton de Vina the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 56.4% going in: 77.1% after a win, 60.1% after a draw, 49.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.0%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Universidad de Chile's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Universidad de Chile win56%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Everton de Vina win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.