28 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

ADT vs UCV Moquegua Primera División prediction & result

Tarma
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Full time2 – 0

Final score: ADT 2-0 UCV Moquegua.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% ADT, 31% draw, 25% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ADT at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ADT99%Draw1%UCV Moquegua0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Juan Diego Lojas
⚽Juan lucumi (pen)
18'
37'
Nicolas Amasifuen
41'
•Cristian Enciso
42'
Cristian Enciso
45'
🔁Nicolas Amasifuenout: Eros Enrique Montenegro Chacón
45'
🔁Edgar Lastreout: Y. López
45'
🔁Cristian Mejíaout: José Luis Granda
64'
🔁Brayan Anguloout: Jeferson Collazos
⚽Said Peraltaassist: Alejandro Ramos
66'
69'
Yorman Zapata
Luis Pérez
70'
Angel Ojeda
70'
73'
🔁Yorman Zapataout: Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas
🔁Said Peraltaout: Aylton Mazzo
73'
Orlando Nunez
81'
🔁Angel Ojedaout: J. Alvino
84'
Juan lucumi
84'
🔁Juan lucumiout: Jhojan Garcilazo
87'

Match stats — ADT vs UCV Moquegua

65%Possession35%
15Shots5
3On target0
5Corners3
1.83xG0.47

Goals against chances

ADT2 from 1.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
UCV Moquegua0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

ADT 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ValenciaG
  • 98A. RamosD
  • 99J. PereyraD
  • 44H. BenincasaD
  • 59O. NúñezD
  • 6Á. OjedaM
  • 16L. PérezM
  • 77Juan David Lucumí CueroM
  • 7J. RojasM
  • 22A. RodríguezM
  • 24S. PeraltaF
Substitutes
  • 28J. SotoD
  • 26Jhojan GarcilazoF
  • 10V. CedrónM
  • 15Josué AlvinoM
  • 27A. HidalgoM
  • 18Aylton MazzoF
  • 31J. NavarroD
  • 3L. RugelD
  • 33C. SolísG
Coach: V. Rivera
UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. GradosG
  • 4A. PerlecheD
  • 13J. LojasD
  • 3C. EncisoD
  • 15N. AmasifuénD
  • 20D. RamírezM
  • 25R. ChipaoM
  • 7E. LastreM
  • 8C. MejíaM
  • 17Y. ZapataM
  • 11B. AnguloF
Substitutes
  • 90J. CollazosF
  • 16Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasF
  • 29R. FigueroaG
  • 30J. GrandaD
  • 24A. LecarosF
  • 88Y. LópezD
  • 22E. MontenegroD
  • 10N. ChávezM
  • 14Claudio Guillermo Ramírez LlamoccaM
Coach: José Soto

Form going into ADT vs UCV Moquegua

ADT

Primera División

  • D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026

UCV Moquegua

Primera División

  • L0-1Alianza Lima25 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15ADT33711153648-1231
16UCV Moquegua3379172748-2130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ADT vs UCV Moquegua

  • 27 August 2026ADT 2–0 UCV MoqueguaCopa De La Liga
  • 9 May 2026UCV Moquegua 2–2 ADTPrimera División

Leading scorers: ADT and UCV Moquegua

ADT

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

UCV Moquegua

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lastre85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ADT beat UCV Moquegua 2–0. The model had made a win for ADT its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Juan lucumi (penalty) 18' for ADT, Said Peralta 66' for ADT. Sent off: Cristian Enciso (UCV Moquegua) 42'. On expected goals it finished 1.83–0.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADT a 41.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 19.3% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 74.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.3%, 22.2 points lower than before the match.

For UCV Moquegua the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 34.2% going in: 4.8% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.1%, 19.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.