28 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Referee: Daniel Ureta
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Alianza Atletico 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Alianza Atletico, 27% draw, 37% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Garcilaso at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Atletico96%Draw4%Deportivo Garcilaso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽José María Ingrattiassist: Guillermo Larios
10'
13'
Facundo Castelli
⚽Guillermo Larios
15'
⚽Juan Delgadoassist: Ariel Muñoz
36'
🔁Ariel Muñozout: Jorge del Castillo
45'
45'
🔁Beto Da Silvaout: S. Ramírez
50'
Héctor Aldair Salazar
61'
🔁Facundo Castelliout: Adrian Ascues
🔁Guillermo Lariosout: Cristian Penilla
61'
63'
⚽S. Ramírezassist: Adrian Ascues
🔁Erick Perlecheout: Stefano Fernández
70'
🔁José María Ingrattiout: Jairo Molina
80'
🔁Germán Díazout: Jimmy Perez
80'
80'
🔁Claudio Torrejónout: L. Ríos
89'
⚽Christopher Olivaresassist: Adrian Ascues

Match stats — Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

53%Possession47%
16Shots17
6On target6
6Corners5
1.52xG1.19

Goals against chances

Alianza Atletico3 from 1.52 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Garcilaso2 from 1.19 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1
  • 31S. RivadeneyraG
  • 21E. PerlecheD
  • 2R. SuarezD
  • 6J. LujánD
  • 24A. GordilloD
  • 10Germán DíazM
  • 37J. DelgadoM
  • 15H. LupúM
  • 27J. IngrattiM
  • 23A. MuñozM
  • 11G. LariosF
Substitutes
  • 17C. PenillaM
  • 95D. PrietoG
  • 9V. RobaldoF
  • 22J. del CastilloM
  • 20Jimmy PérezM
  • 29J. MolinaF
  • 19J. MendietaD
  • 25W. GuzmánD
  • 16S. FernándezM
Coach: F. Urciuoli
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. ZubczukG
  • 35J. MendozaD
  • 2A. SalazarD
  • 19A. GómezD
  • 20A. RosellD
  • 14C. TorrejónM
  • 24C. OlivaresM
  • 18C. RamosM
  • 8A. GonzálezM
  • 30L. da SilvaM
  • 9F. CastelliF
Substitutes
  • 27A. AscuesM
  • 31J. BarbieriG
  • 6C. M. FloresM
  • 33S. VillacortaD
  • 7L. RíosF
  • 17S. RamírezF
  • 22J. PortalesD
Coach: Lisandro Greppo

Form going into Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Alianza Atletico

Primera División

  • L1-4away to Sport Huancayo24 October 2026
  • L1-4Universitario18 October 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso

Primera División

  • W4-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Alianza Atletico33147124948+149
4Deportivo Garcilaso33167105035+1555

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

  • 11 May 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 4 March 2026Alianza Atletico 2–0 Deportivo GarcilasoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 5 October 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 2–4 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 16 May 2025Alianza Atletico 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 10 August 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 29 February 2024Alianza Atletico 3–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso

Alianza Atletico

GoalsAssists

  • C. Penilla95

Deportivo Garcilaso

GoalsAssists

  • L. da Silva114
  • C. Olivares102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alianza Atletico beat Deportivo Garcilaso 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Garcilaso at 37% and given a win for Alianza Atletico 36%. The goals: José María Ingratti 10' for Alianza Atletico, Guillermo Larios 15' for Alianza Atletico, Juan Delgado 36' for Alianza Atletico, S. Ramírez 63' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Christopher Olivares 89' for Deportivo Garcilaso. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Garcilaso a 4.4% chance to finish in the top two: 8.6% after a win, 2.2% after a draw, 1.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.0%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Deportivo Garcilaso's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Alianza Atletico win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso win37%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.