America Mineiro vs Cuiaba Serie B prediction & result
Final score: America Mineiro 1-0 Cuiaba.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% America Mineiro, 31% draw, 43% Cuiaba — fair odds of 3.85, 3.23 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cuiaba at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Bruno BrígidoG
- 4Rafael BarcelosD
- 45Ricardo SilvaD
- 3L. SosaD
- 25T. OstchegaD
- 88BarretoM
- 8Felipe AmaralM
- 20Paulo VictorM
- 77M. SegoviaM
- 7Guilherme ParedeM
- 9WillianF
- 5F. ElizariM
- 55Otavio GoncalvesM
- 37Cesar Leme Do Nascimento JulioM
- 99Marcelo MacolaF
- 27CássioG
- 30L. MontesD
- 21Eduardo PersonM
- 2Emerson SantosD
- 26ManoelD
- 1João CarlosG
- 13João BassoD
- 91LuisãoD
- 14EricD
- 2Igor InocêncioM
- 30RaulM
- 97Luiz OtávioM
- 53WeversonM
- 11ElielM
- 41KauanM
- 29Vinicius PeixotoF
- 20David MiguelM
- 39Guilherme MansanoF
- 36LorenzoD
- 5CalebeM
- 4Vitor MendesD
- 23Marcos JúniorM
- 77Jean DiasF
- 22Pedro Carminatti JacominM
- 12BusattoG
Form going into America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
America Mineiro
Serie B
- W1-0Operario-PR17 October 2026
Cuiaba
Serie B
- L0-1away to Londrina20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 38 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 29 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Cuiaba
- 2 July 2026Cuiaba 1–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 16 November 2025America Mineiro 1–1 CuiabaSerie B
- 24 July 2025Cuiaba 3–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 15 September 2023Cuiaba 2–2 America MineiroSerie A
- 7 May 2023America Mineiro 1–2 CuiabaSerie A
- 29 September 2022Cuiaba 2–1 America MineiroSerie A
The result against the call
America Mineiro beat Cuiaba 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cuiaba at 43% and given a win for America Mineiro 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Matías Segovia 58' for America Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 0.46–1.72.
How the call on America Mineiro v Cuiaba has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 24% / 30% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 26% / 31% / 43%: the biggest move is Cuiaba's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- America Mineiro win26%▲ +2
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Cuiaba win43%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.