Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universidad Catolica 1-1 Audax Italiano.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Universidad Catolica, 25% draw, 21% Audax Italiano — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Universidad Catolica at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27D. MeloG
- 23Tomas AstaburuagaD
- 5A. FaríasD
- 26J. DíazD
- 3E. MenaD
- 13A. CanalesM
- 11C. MontesM
- 8F. ZuquiM
- 15C. CuevasM
- 7J. GianiM
- 9F. ZampedriF
- 6S. ArancibiaD
- 1V. BernedoG
- 25D. CorralF
- 21A. GarcíaD
- 22M. GómezM
- 2D. GónzalezD
- 10M. PalavecinoM
- 4Ignacio Andres Pérez GutierrezD
- 30D. ValenciaF
- 1T. AhumadaG
- 35R. RebolledoD
- 13E. FerrarioD
- 29M. OrtizD
- 3F. SalomoniD
- 7P. GuajardoM
- 6M. SandovalM
- 19C. PinaresM
- 21G. ChiaveranoM
- 9D. CoelhoF
- 27M. FuentesF
- 11F. TroyanskyF
- 16O. RojasM
- 24N. OrellanaF
- 14D. MonrealD
- 28F. MateosM
- 20M. JiménezD
- 25P. GarridoG
- 18N. AedoM
- 30A. UribeM
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
Audax Italiano
Primera División
- D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 49 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano
- 11 April 2026Audax Italiano 3–4 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 20 July 2025Audax Italiano 1–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 17 February 2025Universidad Catolica 3–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 18 August 2024Audax Italiano 2–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 17 March 2024Universidad Catolica 0–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 5 August 2023Universidad Catolica 0–2 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Audax Italiano
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri262
- J. Giani74
Audax Italiano
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universidad Catolica and Audax Italiano drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Universidad Catolica at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Fernando Zampedri 28' for Universidad Catolica, César Pinares (penalty) 55' for Audax Italiano. Sent off: Fernando Zuqui (Universidad Catolica) 45+3', Michael Fuentes (Audax Italiano) 45+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad Catolica these chances to finish in the top four: 97.2% after a win, 91.2% after a draw, 85.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 91.2%.
For Audax Italiano the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.4% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 10.5%.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universidad Catolica v Audax Italiano has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Universidad Catolica's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Universidad Catolica win54%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Audax Italiano win21%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.