Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Uta Arad 0-1 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Uta Arad, 29% draw, 27% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Uta Arad at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Line-ups
- 1Márcio RosaG
- 15Peter OuanehD
- 4Alexandru BengaD
- 60Dmytro PospelovD
- 3Din AlomerovicD
- 5Sota MinoM
- 8Roman AlinM
- 42Omar El SawyM
- 77Jayson PapeauM
- 11Hakim AbdallahM
- 9Marius ComanF
- 20Denis ȚăroiM
- 10Marinos TzionisF
- 7Ismet SinaniF
- 33Andrei GorceaG
- 22Robert BădescuD
- 2Andrei DorobanțuD
- 72Andrea PadulaD
- 18Ionuț PiciorușM
- 6Antoni IvanovM
- 38Lukáš ZimaG
- 66Tiberiu CăpuşăD
- 4Paul PappD
- 71Breston MalulaD
- 2Andres DumitrescuD
- 8Lucho VegaM
- 20Sergiu HancaM
- 19Léo TeixeiraM
- 80Mario IonițăM
- 7Rodrigo MartinsM
- 9Dan N'LunduluF
- 18Calal HuseinovD
- 99Dele IsraelM
- 22Mark ȚuțuD
- 24Adam ZaianD
- 29Kilian LudewigD
- 12Ștefan GeorgescuG
- 1Ștefan RădulescuG
- 30Rareș LeescuD
- 21David ParaschivM
Form going into Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Uta Arad
Liga I
- L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti24 October 2026
- W1-0CFR 1907 Cluj18 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I
- D1-1CFR 1907 Cluj31 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Botosani23 October 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Uta Arad had two goals or fewer.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Petrolul Ploiesti.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 18 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 3 May 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 8 December 2025Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 30 October 2025Uta Arad 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiCupa României
- 1 August 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 5 May 2025Uta Arad 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 15 February 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman50
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- A. Bran43
- Rodrigo Martins42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Petrolul Ploiesti won 1–0 at Uta Arad. The model had leaned towards a win for Uta Arad at 44% and given a win for Petrolul Ploiesti 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Ionita 71' for Petrolul Ploiesti.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Uta Arad a 22.2% chance to finish in the top six: 28.1% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 9.1 points lower than before the match.
For Petrolul Ploiesti the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 40.6% going in: 53.1% after a win, 40.4% after a draw, 34.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 12.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.