6 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Derby vs Bolton Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Referee: James Bell
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Derby 3-1 Bolton.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Derby, 27% draw, 35% Bolton — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derby at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby96%Draw4%Bolton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
⚽Ruben Rodriguesassist: Gaizka Larrazabal
⚽Ryan Nyambeassist: Mohammed Fuseini
46'
⚽Jack Robinsonassist: Carlton Morris
49'
62'
Luca Stephenson
70'
🔁Thierry Galeout: Kyliane Dong
71'
🔁Luca Stephensonout: Atsuki Ito
71'
🔁Xavier Simonsout: Samuel Iling
🔁Lewis Travisout: Alex Mowatt
73'
82'
🔁Akin Famewoout: Thelonius Bair
90+2'
🔁Ruben Rodriguesout: Max Lott
🔁Carlton Morrisout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
90+3'
🔁Mohammed Fuseiniout: Oscar Fraulo
90+3'
⚽Rhian Brewster
90+4'
90+5'
Gaizka Larrazabal

Match stats — Derby vs Bolton

30%Possession70%
9Shots17
5On target6
4Corners6
1.63xG1.74

Goals against chances

Derby3 from 1.63 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bolton1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 25S. DuffyD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 14J. RobinsonD
  • 27L. TravisM
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 10R. BrewsterM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 45Rio CanovilleD
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 13F. BilbijaM
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 43I. GordonD
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 31J. VickersG
Coach: J. Eustace
Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BonhamG
  • 27Luca StephensonD
  • 3C. Forino-JosephD
  • 14A. FamewoD
  • 25M. ConwayD
  • 4X. SimonsM
  • 8J. SheehanM
  • 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
  • 20Ruben RodriguesM
  • 11T. GaleM
  • 10S. DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 16S. Iling-JuniorF
  • 23D. HarringtonG
  • 7K. DongF
  • 6B. DaviesD
  • 5L. BruntD
  • 9T. BairF
  • 17A. ItoM
  • 35Max LottF
  • 12D. WatsonM
Coach: S. Schumacher

Form going into Derby vs Bolton

Derby

Championship

  • L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
  • L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026

Bolton

Championship

  • W1-0away to Charlton3 November 2026
  • L2-3Bristol City31 October 2026
  • L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Derby did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Derby conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bolton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bolton scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Derby152491430-1610
18Bolton155282029-917

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Bolton

  • 16 March 2024Derby 1–0 BoltonLeague One
  • 2 September 2023Bolton 2–1 DerbyLeague One
  • 21 January 2023Derby 2–1 BoltonLeague One
  • 27 December 2022Bolton 0–0 DerbyLeague One
  • 13 April 2019Derby 4–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 29 September 2018Bolton 1–0 DerbyChampionship

The full Derby vs Bolton record →

Leading scorers: Derby and Bolton

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Bolton

GoalsAssists

  • S. Dalby60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Derby beat Bolton 3–1. The model had made a win for Derby its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ruben Rodrigues 42' for Bolton, Ryan Nyambe 46' for Derby, Jack Robinson 49' for Derby, Rhian Brewster 90+4' for Derby. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 57.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 51.1% after a win, 60.1% after a draw, 63.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.1%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Bolton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.8% going in: 6.1% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.0%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.