Vasco da Gama vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 0-3 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Vasco da Gama, 17% draw, 20% Santos — fair odds of 1.59, 5.88 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 63% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Santos
Vasco da Gama
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
Santos
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Santos
- 26 February 2026Santos 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 17 August 2025Santos 0–6 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 30 March 2025Vasco da Gama 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 October 2023Santos 4–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 14 May 2023Vasco da Gama 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 20 December 2020Vasco da Gama 1–0 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Santos
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.