Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sao Paulo, 25% draw, 24% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Sao Paulo
- L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
Coritiba
- W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
- 25 February 2026Coritiba 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 27 September 2023Sao Paulo 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 29 April 2023Coritiba 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 20 October 2022Sao Paulo 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 June 2022Coritiba 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 23 January 2021Sao Paulo 1–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Coritiba
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.