Vitoria vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Vitoria, 27% draw, 41% Botafogo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs Botafogo
Vitoria
- L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Botafogo
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Botafogo
- 23 July 2026Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Vitoria 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 17 July 2025Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 23 November 2024Botafogo 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 12 July 2024Vitoria 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 May 2024Vitoria 1–2 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Botafogo
Vitoria
- Rene8 goals1 assists
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.