11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge 1. Division prediction & result

Nord Energi Arena, Hjorring
Referee: J. Bogelund
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vendsyssel FF 0-2 HB Koge.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Vendsyssel FF, 28% draw, 28% HB Koge — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vendsyssel FF at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vendsyssel FF0%Draw1%HB Koge99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. N. Atlason
7'
B. Konteh
34'
45+1'
⚽M. Jensen
51'
⚽M. Warmingassist: F. Isaki
🔁H. Tangenout: S. Lodberg
56'
🔁B. Clemmensenout: J. Sommer
56'
🔁A. Olsenout: F. Mortensen
68'
🔁A. N. Atlasonout: S. Simpson
68'
73'
🔁S. Haldout: V. Sorensen
73'
🔁M. Warmingout: C. Jensen Tue
K. Engstrom
76'
78'
G. Larsen
78'
🔁G. Larsenout: M. Romer
🔁S. Michaelout: A. Rise
82'
87'
🔁F. Isakiout: N. Stolshoj
87'
🔁M. Jensenout: N. Jakobsen
J. Sommer
89'

Line-ups

Vendsyssel FF
  • 1L. Schulz
  • 23A. Olsen
  • 21B. Clemmensen
  • 4B. Konteh
  • 73M. Lauritsen
  • 30A. N. Atlason
  • 8S. Michael
  • 15H. Tangen
  • 19E. Pedersen
  • 12A. C. Vendelbo
  • 9L. Steffensen
Substitutes
  • 16M. Nielsen
  • 27J. Sommer
  • 14F. Mortensen
  • 18M. Holt
  • 31A. Rise
  • 22P. Williams
  • 10S. Simpson
  • 17S. Lodberg
  • 5S. Roma
Coach: Kim Engstrom
HB Koge
  • 1N. Sommergaard
  • 23M. Westergren
  • 22M. Jakobsen
  • 2L. Bust
  • 4S. Hald
  • 28G. Larsen
  • 7M. Jensen
  • 6R. Brodersen
  • 25F. Isaki
  • 9T. Thomsen
  • 11M. Warming
Substitutes
  • 16C. Mols
  • 5G. Culhaci
  • 14V. Sorensen
  • 8M. Romer
  • 21N. Jakobsen
  • 34W. Palm
  • 10C. Jensen Tue
  • 27N. Stolshoj
Coach: Nicklas Pedersen

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Vendsyssel FF142661424-1012
11HB Koge142662026-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge

  • 10 May 2025Vendsyssel FF 0–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 4 April 2025HB Koge 0–0 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
  • 2 November 2024Vendsyssel FF 1–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 20 September 2024HB Koge 0–2 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
  • 26 November 2023Vendsyssel FF 2–0 HB Koge1. Division

The result against the call

HB Koge won 2–0 at Vendsyssel FF. The model had leaned towards a win for Vendsyssel FF at 44% and given a win for HB Koge 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Jensen 45+1' for HB Koge, M. Warming 51' for HB Koge.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vendsyssel FF a 30.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.6% after a win, 32.8% after a draw, 41.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.7%, 11.4 points higher than before the match.

For HB Koge the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.7% going in: 40.4% after a win, 54.7% after a draw, 63.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.4%, 14.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vendsyssel FF v HB Koge has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Vendsyssel FF's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Vendsyssel FF win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. HB Koge win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.