7 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VfL Bochum 0-1 Hertha BSC.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% VfL Bochum, 21% draw, 21% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Bochum at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Bochum0%Draw7%Hertha BSC93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Julian Eitschberger
39'
⚽S. Gronningassist: S. Gouram
🔁J. Mbomout: M. Pannewig
46'
🔁Y. Karademirout: K. Mets
46'
48'
Paul Seguin
Maximilian Wittek
50'
Philipp Hofmann
58'
🔁A. Crimaldiout: G. Holtmann
61'
63'
🔁S. Gronningout: L. Schuler
63'
🔁S. Gouramout: J. Thorsteinsson
73'
Josip Brekalo
🔁K. Miyoshiout: C. Rasmussen
76'
78'
Deyovaisio Zeefuik
🔁E. Cokajout: D. Hanslik
86'
86'
🔁J. Brekaloout: O. Adewumi
86'
🔁P. Seguinout: P. Klemens
86'
🔁J. Eitschbergerout: M. Dardai
90+1'
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

Match stats — VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC

56%Possession44%
13Shots11
3On target2
5Corners2
1.04xG0.64

Goals against chances

VfL Bochum0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth
Hertha BSC1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 13O. OlsenD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 8J. MbomM
  • 6E. CokajM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 10B. TazM
  • 37A. CrimaldiM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 38H. RollekeG
  • 17G. HoltmannF
  • 7C. RasmussenF
  • 27B. DrakasF
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 35K. KoscierskiD
Coach: Uwe Rosler
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
  • 35M. GersbeckG
  • 2J. EitschbergerD
  • 44L. GechterD
  • 27N. KolbeD
  • 42D. ZeefuikD
  • 8K. SessaM
  • 30P. SeguinM
  • 22M. WinklerM
  • 33S. GouramM
  • 7J. BrekaloM
  • 17S. GronningF
Substitutes
  • 43T. GollerG
  • 18L. SchulerF
  • 19O. AdewumiF
  • 41P. KlemensD
  • 47S. TelibM
  • 23J. ThorsteinssonF
  • 31M. DardaiD
  • 29J. DialloD
  • 21B. Mamuzah LumM
Coach: Stefan Leitl

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8VfL Bochum52124407
1Hertha BSC5500156+915

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC

  • 7 August 2026VfL Bochum 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 14 March 2026Hertha BSC 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 18 October 2025VfL Bochum 3–2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 20 May 2023Hertha Berlin 1–1 Vfl BochumBundesliga
  • 21 January 2023Vfl Bochum 3–1 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
  • 4 February 2022Hertha Berlin 1–1 Vfl BochumBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Hertha BSC

VfL Bochum

  • K. Miyoshi2 goals1 assists

Hertha BSC

  • J. Brekalo4 goals2 assists
  • O. Adewumi3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.