New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 0-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% New England Revolution, 27% draw, 28% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Matt TurnerG
- 8Matt PolsterD
- 22Ethan KohlerD
- 2Mamadou FofanaD
- 23William SandsD
- 21Brooklyn RainesM
- 10Carles GilM
- 80Alhassan YusufM
- 25Peyton MillerF
- 99Dor TurgemanF
- 17Marcos ZambranoF
- 15Cody BakerD
- 11Jack HarrisonM
- 7Griffin YowF
- 77Diego FagúndezM
- 27Wilson HarrisF
- 33Donovan ParisianG
- 4Tanner BeasonD
- 38Eric KleinM
- 14Jackson YueillM
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 6ArturM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 19Mateusz BoguszM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 24Ibrahim AliyuF
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 21Franco NegriD
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 14Duane HolmesM
Form going into New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
New England Revolution
- D2-2away to CF Montreal1 August 2026
- W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026
- D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026
Houston Dynamo
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
- 31 January 2026New England Revolution 2–3 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2025Houston Dynamo 3–3 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
- 3 October 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 5 March 2023New England Revolution 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2022Houston Dynamo 3–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2019New England Revolution 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Houston Dynamo
New England Revolution
No leading scorers listed yet.
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.