15 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gaziantep FK, 24% draw, 24% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gaziantep FK at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gaziantep FK5%Draw92%Alanyaspor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Ruan
Juninho Bacuna
53'
58'
Fidan Aliti
⚽D. Sorescuassist: J. Bacuna
61'
69'
Gaius Makouta
69'
🔁Hwang Ui-Joout: E. Keskin
🔁J. Bacunaout: V. Gidado
70'
🔁T. Stewartout: S. Dursun
70'
🔁K. Kozlowskiout: H. Dervisoglu
70'
🔁U. Melekeout: A. Kizildag
78'
78'
🔁G. Makoutaout: I. Celik
78'
🔁A. Usluogluout: O. Ben Ali
Serdar Dursun
84'
🔁D. Sorescuout: S. Destici
86'
88'
Enes Keskin
88'
🔁Ruanout: Y. Ozdemir
88'
🔁Maestroout: B. A. Gezek
Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo
90+2'

Match stats — Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor

61%Possession39%
13Shots11
5On target2
0Corners4
1.19xG1.34

Goals against chances

Gaziantep FK1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Alanyaspor1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK 3-4-2-1
  • 25K. TobiaszG
  • 2L. PerezD
  • 14M. AbenaD
  • 6U. MelekeD
  • 18D. SorescuM
  • 7J. BacunaM
  • 44A. MaximM
  • 96F. StefanM
  • 10K. KozlowskiF
  • 3D. CamaraF
  • 9T. StewartF
Substitutes
  • 81C. AslanG
  • 23K. CalhanogluD
  • 77S. DesticiD
  • 4A. KizildagD
  • 11M. CihanM
  • 8V. Gidado
  • 19S. DursunF
  • 28H. DervisogluF
  • 97F. BavukF
Coach: Mirel Radoi
Alanyaspor 3-4-3
  • 48Paulo VictorG
  • 3N. LimaD
  • 5F. AlitiD
  • 50U. AkdagD
  • 94F. HadergjonajM
  • 42G. MakoutaM
  • 58MaestroM
  • 11RuanM
  • 16Hwang Ui-JoF
  • 17A. UsluogluF
  • 7I. KayaF
Substitutes
  • 23M. BayramG
  • 8E. KeskinM
  • 4B. OzyurtD
  • 20F. AksoyD
  • 93E. Karatas
  • 26I. CelikM
  • 88Y. OzdemirM
  • 55B. A. GezekM
  • 9O. Ben AliF
Coach: Joao Pereira

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Gaziantep FK522175+28
8Alanyaspor522165+18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor

  • 15 August 2026Gaziantep FK 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • 4 April 2026Gaziantep FK 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • 3 November 2025Alanyaspor 0–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • 9 May 2025Gaziantep FK 0–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • 14 December 2024Alanyaspor 3–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • 2 April 2024Gaziantep FK 0–3 AlanyasporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor

Gaziantep FK

  • D. Sorescu2 goals
  • K. Kozłowski2 goals

Alanyaspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.