Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 22% draw, 49% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.45, 4.55 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 13P. PereiraD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 4Z. ZuzekD
- 77A. DursunD
- 14A. TraoreM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 8E. KemalogluM
- 10F. TongyaM
- 35O. UlgunF
- 20S. KoitaF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 53M. Cavusoglu
- 88F. UzumD
- 3Y. AydarD
- 18M. KyabouM
- 48S. UcanM
- 5P. EteboM
- 17E. A. AslanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 13T. CetinG
- 18M. MuldurD
- 37M. SkriniarD
- 15N. AkeD
- 22L. MercanD
- 5I. YuksekM
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 17I. KahveciM
- 10M. AsensioM
- 70O. AydinM
- 94TaliscaF
- 75K. SapazG
- 27N. SemedoD
- 3A. BrownD
- 14Y. E. DemirD
- 91N. KanteM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 45D. NeneF
- 11M. GreenwoodF
- 19V. MuriqiF
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No earlier matches on record this season.
Fenerbahçe
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
- 15 August 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 9 February 2026Fenerbahçe 3–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 31 August 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 26 July 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–4 FenerbahçeFriendlies Clubs
- 14 March 2021Fenerbahçe 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 21 November 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
- M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.